Polymarket“否”方押注“基督未再临”可获5.5%年化回报,收益跑赢美债

GateNews

Odaily星球日报讯 预测市场 Polymarket 上一项围绕“耶稣基督是否将在 2025 年重返人间”的合约在 2025 年吸引了约 330 万美元资金参与。由于事件最终被判定为“否”,在 4 月份高点押注“不会发生”的参与者获得约 5.5% 的年化回报,表现甚至超过同期美国国债收益率。报道指出,该合约一度将“再临”概率维持在 3% 以上,体现出预测市场在情绪、信仰与投机交织下的定价特征。Bloomberg 同时指出,类似合约虽提升了预测市场关注度,但也引发学界争议。有学者认为,此类高度娱乐化或象征性事件可能削弱预测市场在严肃公共议题中的信息价值。随着该合约在 2026 年版本重新上线,当前市场仍给予事件约 2% 的发生概率,反映出预测市场在“低概率、高回报”叙事下持续吸引投机资金的特性。(Bloomberg)

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