EXPERT ANALYSIS | ‘Online Retail Will Reach 10% of All Retail in 2026,’ Say Payment and Logistics Experts in South Africa

South African payment and logistics experts forecast robust local digital commerce and rising crypto adoption in 2026, but warn of ongoing U.S tariff headwinds for global exporters.

Although card payments will remain dominant, there is a strong drive towards alternative (non-card) payment mechanisms in South Africa, says Rahul Jain, CEO of African payment gateway, Peach Payments


Says Carel van Wyk, CEO of Bitcoin and crypto payments solution provider, MoneyBadger:

“The need for alternative payment options has been evident in consumer surveys over the past few years but it seems to be finally resulting in substantial change in merchant behaviour.

This has been driven by changing consumer appetites and the need to serve the country’s lightly banked population better.”

Key developments include the first in-the-wild implementations of PayShap Real Time Payouts (RTP), which commenters say will result in it being more broadly available to consumers.

Van Wyk says he is optimistic that a mainstream retailer will adopt in-store PayShap RTP transactions soon.

“We also expect a sharp increase in the availability of Bitcoin payments, after the public success of Pick n Pay’s introduction of the payment method two years ago,” he comments

Jain says businesses and consumers are increasingly adopting modern payment methods, a trend he expects to continue.

“Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) and other retail credit options are increasingly available to consumers,” Jain says.

“This comes on the back of improved awareness of security and trust among consumers for established payment brands. In addition, social commerce conducted via Instagram and WhatsApp, for instance, will continue to drive adoption of non-traditional shopping platforms.”

International Trade Faces Headwinds

Global trade remains under strain, and for South African companies operating internationally, tariff instability continues to shape the business landscape.

Says Aretha Cooper, COO of international shipping platform TUNL:

“We anticipate that the impact of the current U.S tariff regime on South African exporters will persist.

Ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy – despite the recent Supreme Court appeal – and the slow pace of negotiations between our governments suggest that these conditions will continue to shape global shipping operations for some time.

Tariffs are now part of everyday conversation globally, not just in the United States. Consumers across markets have begun questioning the cost structures behind the goods they purchase, and this heightened scrutiny has the potential to influence demand patterns and slow global trade more widely.”

The outlook for intra-SADC commerce is brighter, however. Says Jain:

“We expect Mauritius to continue to experience phenomenal growth, for a number of reasons, including online payments being more widely accepted and trusted, especially in the travel sector.”

Digital Growth and Regulatory Clarity

The domestic South African economy appears robust going into 2026. Still, the payments experts anticipate major shifts in technology, digital commerce volumes, and regulations.

Van Wyk expects more consumers will use Bitcoin and crypto as a mechanism to hedge against currency fluctuations. This will also make them more keen to pay for day-to-day expenses using Bitcoin

In addition, he anticipates regulatory clarity from the SA Reserve Bank to unlock crypto as a viable alternative to SWIFT for international payments.

Jain predicts online retail will reach 10% of all retail in 2026.

“In particular, the online travel industry will continue to grow at a steady pace, specifically because of the greater adoption of alternative and local payment methods,” Jain comments.

Cooper agrees that South Africa locally appears to be robust and there is no reason why that trend should not continue.

“However,” she notes, “we do see a general worsening of demand from international shoppers for local exports based on the tariff changes that have happened. The SME Export Index* shows we should expect this diminished demand to continue and likely increase in 2026.

We may still get some tariff clarity from the U.S Supreme Court of Appeals’ ruling on the new tariffs, but we’re not holding our breaths.”

REPORT | South Africa’s Online Retail Sector Outpacing Physical Retail by 10x – Crypto is Least Preferred Payment Option

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