BTC’s weekly EMA warning. A 3-Cycle macro pattern is repeating

Across the last three major Bitcoin cycles from 2018, 2021–2022, and now 2024–2025. The same structural signal has appeared before each deep bear market phase:

The Sequence:

Price closes multiple weeks below the 50-week EMA

BTC attempts a reclaim and fails

The 100-week EMA acts as temporary support

Once that support gives way → macro capitulation unfolds

This behaviour is visible:

In 2018 before the 6k floor broke

In 2022 before the 36k floor broke

And it’s forming again right now in 2025

Bitcoin doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.
When the market structure at the weekly level aligns across three cycles, it becomes a signal worth respecting.

The coming retest of the 50-week EMA will determine the macro direction for the next 6–12 months.
A clean reclaim of the 50-week EMA would technically break the pattern, but based on current structure, liquidity behavior, and weekly momentum, the probability of such a reclaim looks extremely low.
Until the market proves otherwise, the burden of proof is on the bulls, not the bears.
A failure reinforces it.

📉 比特币周线EMA预警：三重周期宏观模式正在重演

纵观2018年、2021-2022年以及当前2024-2025年这三次主要比特币周期，相同的结构性信号在每次深度熊市阶段前均已显现：

1. 价格连续数周收于50周EMA下方
2. 比特币尝试收复该均线但宣告失败
3. 100周EMA成为临时支撑
4. 一旦该支撑失守 → 宏观性崩盘随即展开

该模式在以下节点清晰可见：
- 2018年6000美元底部破位前
- 2022年36000美元底部破位前
- 当前2025年正再次形成

比特币虽不会简单重复历史，却常押着相似的韵脚。当周线级别的市场结构在三个周期中形成共振，这便成为值得重视的技术信号。

即将到来的50周EMA重新测试将决定未来6-12个月的宏观走向。若能有效收复50周EMA将打破该模式，但基于当前市场结构、流动性表现及周线动能分析，实现有效收复的概率极低。在市场出现明确反转信号前，证明多头逻辑的责任不在空头，而在多方。若收复失败，则将进一步强化当前看跌结构。