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For the market to return to risk-on, it needs not just one piece of good news, but a sustained shift in a combination of signals across multiple fronts. UST yields must stabilize or pull back, giving the market confidence. Simultaneously, VIX should compress to 14-16, credit spreads should tighten, and gold should lose its upward momentum - meaning safe havens will no longer be the only obvious answer.
For crypto, this means stopping BTC selloffs at sound support levels around $100K, the return of net inflows to spot ETFs, and restoration of its role as a high beta asset to global risk. The macro narrative must shift from damage control to opportunity - the market doesn't need paradise, just the absence of new hell: manageable financial conditions, no signals of harsh recession or new surprises from central banks.
When 3-4 of these components are met simultaneously for at least 1-2 sessions without new shocks, that's an emerging sustainable risk-on.