#加密市场周期与牛熊转换 Gray's recent bullish comments are back again, claiming value storage demand, clear regulation, and Bitcoin reaching a new high in the first half of next year. It sounds appealing, but I have to pour some cold water — over the years, I've seen too many similar "institutional optimism" expectations, and how did it end?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Gray's analysis is all nonsense. Factors like rising government debt and concerns about fiat currency devaluation do exist, and the progress of regulatory frameworks is not empty talk. The problem is that these positives are often already reflected in market sentiment. When Gray's collective calls for bullishness happen, it's precisely a time to be cautious.

The key is to see clearly: predictions like reaching a new high in the first half of 2026 are essentially describing expectations that the market has already digested. What is the real risk? It’s the retail investors following the trend, the various air projects under the guise of "track opportunities," and old scams reviving under the bullish sentiment with a new guise.

My simple advice: regulation is indeed progressing, and that's true. But don’t relax your vigilance just because institutions are bullish. The core of surviving long on-chain is to always assume the next crash will come and to leave room for the worst-case scenario. Not many make money in a bull market, and even fewer survive to the next cycle.