Ethereum spot ETF net outflow of 95.53 million USD may seem like a ripple in the crypto market, but if you only focus on exchange data, you miss the real story behind it — a contest between Federal Reserve monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions.

Many traders habitually look for explanations within the crypto circle alone, ignoring a fundamental fact: crypto assets are inherently risk assets. Their price movements are deeply linked to the US dollar's strength and Federal Reserve policies. When the Fed raises interest rates and the dollar strengthens, capital naturally flows out of risk assets and back into dollar assets; conversely, during a rate cut cycle, the dollar depreciates, and large amounts of capital flood into risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Recent turning points are crucial. When the US March CPI data was released, the year-on-year increase was 3.5%, breaking market expectations of 3.4%. The core CPI even reached 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%. Once these figures were announced, market enthusiasm for Fed rate cuts instantly cooled. Previously, institutions generally predicted that a rate cut cycle would start in June, but now the sentiment has shifted — September has become the new consensus, with more pessimistic voices even pointing to next year.

As expectations change, market actions follow suit. Funds begin to systematically withdraw from risk assets, and the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF is a direct reflection of this systemic adjustment. This is not a short-term fluctuation triggered by a negative event, but a process of macroeconomic re-pricing of risk assets.