Interest rate policy shift: 97.9% chance that the SEC will hold steady in April. What does this mean for cryptocurrencies?
In March 2026, the global financial markets witnessed a sharp shift in monetary policy expectations. Just a few weeks earlier, the market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would continue its rate-cutting cycle within the year. Currently, the CME "FedWatch" tool shows a 97.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April, making holding rates steady an overwhelming consensus. More importantly, the market has begun pricing in rate hikes for 2026—swap market data indicates traders have already priced in about 20 basis points of rate increases, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has temporarily broken through the 4% level.
This change is not an isolated event. Its structural significance lies in the fact that the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, which began in September 2024, after approximately 18 months of operation, is now facing a substantial risk of ending. While the Fed's dot plot still indicates a possibility of one rate cut within the year, officials' statements have shown a clear shift—including a number of previously dovish members such as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who are now signaling a potential pause or even a possible rate hike.
This change is not an isolated event. Its structural significance lies in the fact that the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, which began in September 2024, after approximately 18 months of operation, is now facing a substantial risk of ending. While the Fed's dot plot still indicates a possibility of one rate cut within the year, officials' statements have shown a clear shift—including a number of previously dovish members such as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who are now signaling a potential pause or even a possible rate hike.
