Some of these digital asset treasury companies have bought so high that they are down -50% on their capital in less than 3 months.
Absolute insanity

Remember the stimmy check pump we had a few weeks ago???
Ya well, markets saying less than 20% chance it happens before August 2026. Classic Trump

The Rollup is entering our next exponential growth phase.
2025 was our biggest year yet by all metrics: impressions, follower growth, events, revenue, team growth, brand awareness.
2026 is the year we really breakout. Absolutely dialed.

Painful lessons we learned this cycle:
- staking is mostly a meme to enrich VCs
- institutions are going to build their own products on our open infra
- digital asset treasury co's are just degens with more cash
- fundamentals do indeed matter
- inflation is way too high compared to security costs

In case you missed it, we hosted @haonan on Stabled Up this week to discuss Codex, the massive forex x stablecoin market, and what his 'Trillion Dollar Play' really is.
Great for all interested in stablecoins.

RETURN TO FUNDAMENTALS.

"Bull market warrior" founder archetype to avoid as an investor:
- loud, cocky
- not much track record
- raising a seed round on the hottest narrative available
- recruiting notable angels to give credibility
- questionable tech / real vision
- time horizon is measured in months to years, not decades
- token launch coming very soon without any real PMF
- sees an opportunity to enrich themselves
- don't share any crypto ethos/values
One of your favorite CT VCs shared this term with me in late 2024 and likely saved us hundreds of thousands on the investment side this year. Grateful.
I'll be rea

While many believe Bitcoin is the best asset on Earth and alts are zeros, like any pendulum which has swung too far, I too expect this trend to shift.
There now exists tokens that are generating sustainable revenue which are going to be battered and already are at lows which will be replaced aggressively higher.
The type of institutional capital coming into this market is looking for asymmetric upside opportunities with reasonable fundamentals to back their speculative thesis. This is going to cause the biggest digital asset bull run we've ever seen in our entire existence, and people will be

The sentiment gap just keeps getting wider and wider.
There's a full on institutional Wolf of Wall Streets bull run in NYC rn. Larry Fink is calling for generational highs on digital assets, saying we are literally going to tokenize everything.
Average CT trader is completely BTFO, liquidated, and apathetic.
I'm choosing to be optimistic.
I'm choosing to lengthen my time horizon.
I'm choosing to be a delusional bull. Cockroach mode.

The ticker is ______?

Choose one.

Welcome to month 6 of the revenue meta.
Fees vs. inflation.
Price to earnings.
Metcalfe's law.
Network effects.
Risk-adjusted yield.
Power law return profile.
Networks as businesses.
L1 valuation compressions.
This is the new frame of thought from all the institutional investors entering digital assets en masse. This isn't 2021 anymore. Return to fundamentals.

In case you missed it, we had Dankrad Feist on the show in Argentina to unpack his move from the EF to Tempo, stablecoin chains and payments, and the major updates coming for Ethereum with Fusaka and more.
His first public appearance on Tempo.

Two things that seem very clear to me:
1. By the end of 2025, we will have gone through a full stage one maturation as an industry. VCs will look for revenue & business models in 2026. Speculators will not bite on random pumps. People will be more savvy. Valuations will likely compress.
2. By the end of 2026, we'll likely have a much better understanding of the real areas of adoption, a better UX to show for it, and likely a stronger base of steel handed participants. Tourists will be washed.