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The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations weaken, and the yen faces increased depreciation pressure!
Foreign Exchange Market Weekly Summary
In the past week (12/15-12/19), the US dollar index rose slightly by 0.33%, with major non-USD currencies showing significant divergence. The Japanese yen was the biggest loser, falling 1.28% over the week, while the euro declined 0.23%, the Australian dollar fell 0.65%, and the British pound edged up 0.03%. Behind these fluctuations, the divergence in Federal Reserve policy outlooks and central bank stances across countries has become the main focus of the market.
Fed Rate Hike Pace Changes, Giving the Euro a Chance
Last week, EUR/USD initially rose then fell, ultimately closing down 0.23%, but the other side of the story is worth noting.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held steady as expected, maintaining its policy interest rate. However, President Lagarde’s remarks were not as hawkish as market expectations, instead appearing relatively dovish. US economic data was mixed—November non-farm employment was average, and CPI readings during the same period were even lower than market expectations.
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Tesla's Slump Accelerates as Musk's Focus Drifts Away from Vehicle Sales
Elon Musk's pivot toward robotics and his multibillion-dollar compensation package has coincided with a troubling deterioration in Tesla's core automotive business. Across all three major markets—Europe, China, and the U.S.—the EV maker is losing ground to increasingly formidable competitors. The
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Japanese Yen Exchange Rate in 2026 Faces "Tearing": Institutional Predictions Differ by 20 Points, What Will Happen to Arbitrage Trading
In 2026, there is a significant divergence in USD/JPY exchange rate forecasts, with the depreciation camp and appreciation camp holding opposing views, with a difference of 24 points. The bearish analysts believe that Japan's expansionary fiscal policy will drag down the yen, while the bullish analysts focus on inflation political risks and foreign exchange intervention expectations. Global economic growth uncertainties are increasing, and the volatility of the yen is expected to be higher than in previous years. Investors should pay attention to policy developments and economic cycles.
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JPY Exchange Guide for the End of 2025: Choosing the Right Method Can Save Thousands
Latest exchange rate inquiry for December 10: TWD to JPY trend analysis
This year, the Japanese Yen has appreciated by 8.7%. The TWD to JPY exchange rate has gone from 4.46 at the beginning of the year to 4.85, but the difference in exchange costs is often overlooked. According to actual data, exchanging 50,000 TWD for JPY through different channels can vary by as much as 1,500-2,000 NT dollars—which is enough to enjoy over ten bowls of ramen in Japan. Even more extreme, some people exchange 1,000 TWD for JPY at the counter, with the exchange rate difference and handling fees eating up 50-80 NT dollars.
So, the question is: Is it worth exchanging JPY now? And what's the most cost-effective way?
4 Types of Currency Exchange Cost Tests
Instead of just talking about theory, let's speak with actual numbers. Taking 50,000 TWD as an example, here is a comparison of the actual costs across different channels:
Channel 1: In-person cash exchange (the most traditional and expensive)
Bring cash to a bank or airport counter to get JPY cash on the spot. It sounds convenient, but it's actually the most costly method. Taiwan
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The core mechanism of reverse trading: the art of investing to profit from market downturns
"Yin and Yang" is the fundamental principle of the market. The core logic of the investment market is the balance of bullish and bearish forces. When some see an upward trend, others see a downward trend; those making profits from rising prices will inevitably be offset by those profiting from falling prices. This seemingly opposing trading direction actually forms the basic framework of modern financial markets. So, how can we systematically understand and utilize the profit mechanisms in a downtrend?
Reverse trading is not gambling but an art of risk management.
The essence of reverse trading (commonly known as short selling) can be understood as follows: when an investor predicts that the market will decline, they borrow the relevant securities from a broker, sell them at the current price, and then buy them back after the price drops, earning the difference.
This process may seem simple, but the underlying logic warrants deeper reflection:
First, predicting a decline is a prerequisite. The logic of going long is "buy low, sell high," whereas reverse trading is "sell high, buy low"—the two mindsets are completely opposite. Those who go long believe that...
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Asian Stock Market Index Panorama: Analysis of the Top 10 Major Indices and Trading Beginner's Guide
Asian Stock Market Indexes: Definition and Significance
The so-called Asian stock market index is an indicator calculated by selecting representative listed company stocks and weighting them by market capitalization or price. This indicator can intuitively reflect the overall trend of the stock market in a specific region and its economic vitality.
For example, the Nikkei 225 index compiled by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun includes the 225 most influential companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and serves as an important window into Japan's economic prosperity. Similar mechanisms are also widely used in other major Asian stock markets.
Due to its emerging market characteristics, the Asian region features high growth potential and volatility, making it an indispensable part of global capital allocation. Among them, the most actively traded are China's A-shares and related indexes, the Hong Kong stock market, and the Japanese stock market.
Top 10 Key Stock Market Indexes in Asia Explained
FTSE China A50 Index: A Barometer of China's Stock Market
FTSE China
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## US Dollar / Japanese Yen Prelude to Adjustment? Institutions Optimistic About Yen's Rebound Next Year
A new voice is emerging in the financial markets. Over the past month, the yen has been under continuous pressure, but several investment banks are changing their tone—this time, a rebound is truly on the horizon.
As of mid-November, USD/JPY hovered around 156.60. Behind this seemingly calm figure lies a clear divergence in policy orientations between two major economies. On one side, Japan's new Prime Minister is implementing active fiscal stimulus; on the other, the Federal Reserve faces
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Investing in Hong Kong Stocks: A Beginner's Trading Guide
There are over 2,600 listed companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of 38 trillion HKD, mainly including Tencent, Alibaba, and others. Hong Kong stocks implement T+0 trading, with fund settlement requiring T+2. Investment methods include direct investment in individual stocks, index and ETF investments, and Contract for Difference (CFD) trading. Beginners should prioritize blue-chip stocks or index funds and develop risk control strategies.
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The RMB exchange rate breaks new high! The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts accelerate the internationalization process, and it is expected to rise to 7 yuan by the end of the year.
Recently, the RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and China's promotion of RMB internationalization. The RMB exchange rate has risen to a new high, and the central bank intends to guide the appreciation to build international confidence. RMB internationalization is accelerating, market activity is increasing, and the upward trend is expected to continue.
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The meaning of short selling and trading practices: how to profit bidirectionally amid market fluctuations?
"The way is only the way, not the eternal way." Stock market fluctuations are normal; some profit from going long, while others profit from shorting. But most retail investors only think about buying when prices rise, unaware that smart traders have already learned to seize opportunities during declines. So what exactly does shorting mean? Can it really help you profit against the trend in a bear market?
What exactly is shorting? Let me explain in the simplest terms
Shorting is "sell high first, buy low later"—this phrase is simple but reveals its core essence.
Specifically, when you expect the price of an asset to fall in the future, you can borrow that asset from a broker, sell it at the current price, and then buy it back after the price drops to return to the broker, pocketing the difference. This trading logic is completely opposite to traditional long positions.
Sounds a bit complicated? Let's understand with a real example:
Suppose a stock is currently priced at 100 yuan, and you predict it will fall to 70 yuan. You
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Understanding the fundamental difference between Token and Coin in one article
Why are Token and Coin often confused?
In the early stages of cryptocurrency development, the market mainly circulated assets like Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and other Coins, with relatively clear terminology definitions. It wasn't until the birth of Ethereum that a large number of tokens issued on public blockchains flooded the market, causing the concepts of Coin and Token to begin overlapping. Since both are translated into "代幣" or "cryptocurrency" in Chinese, many investors have a blurred understanding of the differences between the two, and some even confuse them. In fact, understanding the Chinese definition of Token and its differences from Coin is crucial for investment decisions.
Core Definition and Features of Token
Tokens are essentially digital asset certificates representing specific rights, passes, or other forms of rights, which can be traded, transferred, or exchanged on their respective blockchains.
TOKEN-3,63%
BTC-0,68%
LTC-0,49%
DOGE-1,78%
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2026 Yen Outlook Analysis: Where Are the Opportunities for Yen Appreciation? Why Is the Exchange Rate Continually Under Pressure
Will the Japanese Yen stop falling? Will the yen appreciate in 2026 or continue to depreciate? Recently, the fluctuations in the yen exchange rate have sparked widespread discussion in the market, and many investors are contemplating this issue. This article will analyze the current challenges faced by the yen and potential opportunities ahead.
Current Situation: Why Is the Yen in a Depreciation Dilemma?
As we approach the end of 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate has reached a half-year low of 157, and yen depreciation has become a market consensus. Four core factors are driving this phenomenon:
The US-Japan interest rate differential remains a significant driver. Although the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December (the highest since 1995, about 30 years ago), the Federal Funds Rate in the United States remains higher than Japan’s, leading investors to continue borrowing low-interest yen to exchange for high-yield US dollar assets. This arbitrage continually exerts selling pressure, creating substantial obstacles for yen appreciation.
The Japanese government’s fiscal expansion policies are adding to the depreciation pressure. Since 202
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How to position raw material stocks in the era of interest rate cuts? An in-depth analysis of investment opportunities in 2025
Why Have Raw Material Stocks Become the Next Hot Topic?
In recent years, raw material stocks have lost their shine under the dual pressures of a global high-interest-rate environment and sluggish import demand from China, leading to massive capital withdrawals from related industries. However, the situation is now reversing. As global central banks initiate interest rate cuts and the Chinese government rolls out intensive economic stimulus policies, raw material stocks are once again attracting investors' attention with a new face. The decline in financing costs brought about by rate cuts is particularly beneficial for capital-intensive raw material stocks, and market rotation effects are already evident.
So, how should investors seize opportunities in raw material stocks during a rate-cutting cycle? Which stocks in the US and Taiwan markets are worth paying attention to? This article will provide a comprehensive analysis from three dimensions: industry fundamentals, specific targets, and investment indicators.
Difference Between Raw Material Stocks and Concept Stocks of Raw Materials
Raw materials refer to products directly produced by nature that have not undergone deep processing, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, animal husbandry, and mineral resources.
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2026 Taiwan Investor's Guide to US Stock Trading Platforms — Comprehensive Review of Fees and Services of the Top Five Brokerage Firms
Why Taiwanese Investors Need to Understand US Stock Trading Platforms
In recent years, the US stock market has attracted increasing attention from Taiwanese investors. However, unlike investing in Taiwan stocks, purchasing US stocks requires trading through a brokerage platform. Currently, the market includes international brokers that offer direct overseas account opening and local Taiwanese brokers that provide omnibus account services. Choosing the right trading platform directly impacts investment efficiency and trading costs.
Five Core Criteria for Choosing a US Stock Trading Platform
Making the right choice among numerous US stock trading platforms requires a comprehensive assessment based on the following dimensions:
1. Fund Security and Regulatory Qualifications
The primary prerequisite for overseas investment is fund security. It is crucial to verify whether the broker is regulated by legitimate authorities such as the US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the US Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). Brokers that have obtained these regulatory certifications are even if out
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Forex Trading Must-Learn: Practical Guide to Euro Symbols and Global Currency Symbols
The article emphasizes the importance of mastering global currency symbols, pointing out that currency symbols are an internationally recognized shorthand system that can improve transaction efficiency and reduce errors. The text provides currency symbols and input methods for various countries and reminds readers of common confusions. Ultimately, mastering these symbols helps to conduct foreign exchange transactions more professionally.
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Will there still be high yields in the US stock market in 2025? Are these 5 high-dividend stocks worth bottom-fishing?
If you've been watching the US stock market recently, you might notice a harsh reality: the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 is only 1.2%, hitting a 20-year low. The US stock market surged last year, stock prices went up, but dividend yields were diluted.
But here’s an opportunity — there are still a number of undervalued high-dividend stocks in the market, with annual dividend yields exceeding 5%. For investors tired of chasing gains and then selling off, these stable dividend-paying companies might be worth serious research.
Why High-Dividend US Stocks in 2025 Are Worth Paying Attention To
The macro environment gives us a good reason to invest in high-dividend US stocks.
The US stock market in 2024 has seen impressive gains, driven by the AI boom and a rate-cutting cycle. What about 2025? Economic uncertainty may increase, and at such times, stable dividend income becomes especially attractive.
Looking at the data more clearly: in 2024, the earnings per share of S&P 500 components increased by 8%, and the stock
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The US dollar faces renewed pressure. Can the euro break through the four-year high?
Market research shows that the US dollar index has often declined in December over the past ten years. Currently, the US dollar index has fallen for nine consecutive days as the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's rate hike and changes in the new Federal Reserve chairmanship candidate may put further pressure on the dollar, and analysts believe the dollar may continue to decline.
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Complete Guide to U.S. Stock Futures: Master Trading Secrets from Scratch
Among investors interested in U.S. stocks, many want to advance into U.S. stock futures trading but hesitate due to lack of knowledge. This article will systematically organize the core knowledge of U.S. stock futures to help you go from beginner to advanced.
First, understand the four main mainstream U.S. stock futures products
The most actively traded U.S. stock futures are concentrated on four indices, each with two specifications. Choosing the right product is the first step to successful trading.
Core product overview table:
| Index | Product Code | Exchange | Components | Features | Multiplier |
|-------|--------------|----------|------------|----------|------------|
| S&P 500 Index | ES/MES | CME | ~500 | Market indicator | $50/$5 per point |
| NASDAQ 100 Index | NQ/MNQ |
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Analysis of the reasons behind the yen's decline! Central bank policy expectation shift drives significant exchange rate fluctuations
Market focus shifts to central bank policy expectations as the yen faces a turning point
This week, the foreign exchange market showed a clear divergence, with USD/JPY falling by 0.16%, revealing significant changes in central bank policy expectations behind the scenes. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on December 1st that he would consider the possibility of a rate hike in December. This statement was seen by the market as the most obvious policy signal shift to date. Swap market data reflect that market expectations for the BOJ to raise rates on December 19th have risen to 62%, a sharp increase from 30% two weeks ago, indicating a reassessment of the central bank's hawkish stance.
Meanwhile, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates are also rising, creating dual pressure on USD/JPY. Data from the CME FedWatch tool show that the market anticipates an 87.6% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in December. This combination—rising expectations of Fed rate cuts coupled with strengthening expectations of a BOJ rate hike—directly pushes
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The market breaks through the 28,000-point level, with net capital inflow driving a comprehensive rise in the Taiwan stock market.
Driven by the collective optimism of U.S. stock indices, the Taiwan stock market showed a strong performance today. During the trading session, the index steadily advanced, with a peak moment surpassing 28,100 points. Compared to the opening, it surged over 470 points, indicating very active buying interest. More than 24 stocks hit the daily limit-up, and trading volume remained lively, reflecting a clear bullish market trend.
Blue-chip stocks led the steady market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) acting as the main support for the index.
As market sentiment indicators, TSMC (2330) opened higher and continued to rise today, reaching a high of 1,470 NT dollars during the session, an increase of nearly 2.8%, significantly contributing to the overall market. Hon Hai (2317) also steadily climbed, with an intraday gain of about 1.8%. The two major blue chips jointly supported the fundamental stability of the index.
It is worth noting that MediaTek (2454) experienced a decline after opening higher today, turning from red to black during the session, with a drop of over 1% at one point. This phenomenon reflects active rotation of funds among electronic stocks and
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