#Gate广场创作者新春激励 The events that can truly impact everyone's "wallet" in the next month.
First, on January 8th, the U.S. Senate recently reintroduced the crypto market structure bill that had been shelved for over a year. Many interpret it as a "passport for the crypto world" and a sign of "regulatory clarity." But if you read the original text carefully, you'll find it looks more like a political move driven by a "territory grab + rushing against time." Why push it now? Because three countdowns are pressing:
- The government might shut down again by January 30th, so urgent action is needed to provide some explanation;
- The old bill is outdated, and there's no time to rewrite it, so revisions must be made next week;
- The mid-term elections in 2026 are approaching, making substantial progress during the election period difficult. The agenda must be advanced now.
Especially noteworthy is that the Democrats are pushing to include an ethical clause banning government officials from profiting from cryptocurrency activities—ostensibly to prevent corruption but actually targeting the Trump camp.
More critically, they also want to limit the yields from decentralized finance and crypto assets. In plain terms, crypto markets can be legalized but cannot be more profitable than traditional banks. In fact, the banking industry is lobbying behind the scenes to try to ban interest payments on stablecoins, aiming to redirect funds back into the banking system.
From a fundamental perspective, recent net inflows/outflows of Bitcoin ETFs have expanded, breaking the monotony of the past month. The crypto market in January is highly likely to trend upward! After the New Year, market funds tend to be more active, and February's historical returns are also generally positive. The current focus isn't on seeking explosive growth but on maintaining continuous capital inflow.
Looking at the chip flow, there has been a significant net outflow from exchanges within 30 days, reducing short-term selling pressure.
CoinTelegraph data shows that the amount of Bitcoin bought by institutions over 8 consecutive days has exceeded the daily new output from miners. This means that the newly mined coins each day are not enough to meet demand, which has overtaken the fixed supply. If long-term holders are unwilling to sell at low prices, the market may gradually enter a "liquidity tightening" phase—retracements become shallower because Bitcoin is being genuinely transferred out, not sold.
When "liquidity tightening" occurs, the price of the coin will inevitably rise. Looking at historical data, once institutional buying surpasses miner supply for an extended period, Bitcoin's average increase over the following months can exceed 100%.
From a technical perspective, the current price remains in a critical zone, with resistance above and support below. The trend has not yet formed a clear new high.
For spot investors, this range hasn't shown a clear pattern yet. It’s advisable to wait and observe for a while; patience and waiting are essential qualities for spot traders.
For contract traders, this position is actually quite good for positioning: consider chasing the breakout if it surpasses the range; if it pulls back and breaks the short-term uptrend, consider shorting. The key is to have a plan, set proper take-profit and stop-loss levels, and avoid being caught in passive holding in the middle. Even if you miss the initial move, blindly chasing orders is a big taboo in contract trading.
Regarding indicators, EMA100/200 have not yet converged, RSI is above the midline but the highs are under persistent downward pressure, indicating that the bulls are not fully strong. The overall market remains cautious. The index price has attempted multiple times to break through the $95,000 resistance but was pushed back, showing there are still many sell orders above this level. The good news is that we are now in a tug-of-war phase, no longer dominated by bearish sentiment. Although there is still room for bears, the risk is no lower than that for bulls. If you want to enter on the left side, try with a small position; a more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout before following. Especially in this high-level zone where policies, capital, and sentiment intertwine. Don’t let FOMO drive you; plan your position carefully to stay on a steadier path.
First, on January 8th, the U.S. Senate recently reintroduced the crypto market structure bill that had been shelved for over a year. Many interpret it as a "passport for the crypto world" and a sign of "regulatory clarity." But if you read the original text carefully, you'll find it looks more like a political move driven by a "territory grab + rushing against time." Why push it now? Because three countdowns are pressing:
- The government might shut down again by January 30th, so urgent action is needed to provide some explanation;
- The old bill is outdated, and there's no time to rewrite it, so revisions must be made next week;
- The mid-term elections in 2026 are approaching, making substantial progress during the election period difficult. The agenda must be advanced now.
Especially noteworthy is that the Democrats are pushing to include an ethical clause banning government officials from profiting from cryptocurrency activities—ostensibly to prevent corruption but actually targeting the Trump camp.
More critically, they also want to limit the yields from decentralized finance and crypto assets. In plain terms, crypto markets can be legalized but cannot be more profitable than traditional banks. In fact, the banking industry is lobbying behind the scenes to try to ban interest payments on stablecoins, aiming to redirect funds back into the banking system.
From a fundamental perspective, recent net inflows/outflows of Bitcoin ETFs have expanded, breaking the monotony of the past month. The crypto market in January is highly likely to trend upward! After the New Year, market funds tend to be more active, and February's historical returns are also generally positive. The current focus isn't on seeking explosive growth but on maintaining continuous capital inflow.
Looking at the chip flow, there has been a significant net outflow from exchanges within 30 days, reducing short-term selling pressure.
CoinTelegraph data shows that the amount of Bitcoin bought by institutions over 8 consecutive days has exceeded the daily new output from miners. This means that the newly mined coins each day are not enough to meet demand, which has overtaken the fixed supply. If long-term holders are unwilling to sell at low prices, the market may gradually enter a "liquidity tightening" phase—retracements become shallower because Bitcoin is being genuinely transferred out, not sold.
When "liquidity tightening" occurs, the price of the coin will inevitably rise. Looking at historical data, once institutional buying surpasses miner supply for an extended period, Bitcoin's average increase over the following months can exceed 100%.
From a technical perspective, the current price remains in a critical zone, with resistance above and support below. The trend has not yet formed a clear new high.
For spot investors, this range hasn't shown a clear pattern yet. It’s advisable to wait and observe for a while; patience and waiting are essential qualities for spot traders.
For contract traders, this position is actually quite good for positioning: consider chasing the breakout if it surpasses the range; if it pulls back and breaks the short-term uptrend, consider shorting. The key is to have a plan, set proper take-profit and stop-loss levels, and avoid being caught in passive holding in the middle. Even if you miss the initial move, blindly chasing orders is a big taboo in contract trading.
Regarding indicators, EMA100/200 have not yet converged, RSI is above the midline but the highs are under persistent downward pressure, indicating that the bulls are not fully strong. The overall market remains cautious. The index price has attempted multiple times to break through the $95,000 resistance but was pushed back, showing there are still many sell orders above this level. The good news is that we are now in a tug-of-war phase, no longer dominated by bearish sentiment. Although there is still room for bears, the risk is no lower than that for bulls. If you want to enter on the left side, try with a small position; a more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout before following. Especially in this high-level zone where policies, capital, and sentiment intertwine. Don’t let FOMO drive you; plan your position carefully to stay on a steadier path.
