Harry_F

Leaf Army

Swimming in 600,000 Bitcoin Was a Mistake

Swimming in 600,000 Bitcoin Was a Mistake

$BROCCOLI714 reminds everyone of a reality: don't deceive yourself into pretending to work hard, because the results won't cooperate with your acting.
He shared a painful lesson. There was a deal that could have earned over $10,000 in profit, but in the end, he only got a little over $10,000. Where did the loss come from? Drinking and messing things up. In a moment of unclear thinking, he opened an ant-sized position and directly ate up more than half of the profit. That was a pretty painful pit.
But today, I want to discuss a more critical issue: if you make 1 million in the crypto world, how should you allocate this money?
Last month, a long-term fan came to consult him, saying: "Bro, I now have 1 million idle cash earning interest, but the returns are too slow. How do you usually operate?"
He asked the other person to send a screenshot of their account to check the position allocation, and he immediately had a clear idea. For a scale like 1 million, there's no need to operate all in at once, nor should all of it just sit and earn interest. The truly prudent approach is to divide the funds into three levels of operation.
**Level 1: 20% for stable income**
This part includes earning platform interest, staking nodes, participating in exchange activities, etc. This isn't about chasing huge profits but serving as a stepping stone for the principal. With this 20% secured, you'll never fall into excessive tension, and the basic health of the entire fund pool remains stable. Mentally, it also feels reassuring because at least this part of the money keeps providing continuous feedback.
**Level 2: 50% for low-risk swing arbitrage**
This is the main force that actually moves. But remember, it's not about blindly chasing rallies or panic selling. Instead, be patient and wait for clear market conditions and precisely controllable risks. For example, looking at Ethereum's recent trend: dropping from 3435 to 3160, such a clear trend and support level make a swing trade with 50% of the capital enough. As long as you stick to your trading discipline, the returns from such opportunities are usually quite stable.
**Level 3: 30% reserved for sudden opportunities**
This part is the most vital in the entire allocation. No one can predict when the market will give you big gains. But you must always keep your ammunition ready, ensuring this 30% of funds is always in a state of readiness. Once an opportunity arises, a small move can bring substantial gains.
Using this method to activate your funds makes a huge difference. You can steadily earn interest as a foundation while quickly amplifying gains when the market hits the right conditions. This is the strategy that large funds should follow, rather than locking all money in interest and slowly wasting away.
Many people's misconception is that the market hasn't given them opportunities. Wrong. Essentially, it's because they haven't kept their funds flexible enough to strike at any moment. When all your money is earning interest somewhere, a sudden big trend comes, and you can only watch helplessly.
This approach sounds simple but is counterintuitive to human nature. But this is what the market teaches experienced traders: remember, the money in your hands is working. If the market next week is working for exchanges, you can also rely on clear spot and futures strategies to earn 1-3 certain trades daily. Most importantly, build a complete profit system of your own, with the three pillars indispensable.

Quick overview of spot trading in the past 15 minutes:
Among the top three coins leading the gains, PERP (Perpetual Protocol) performed the most impressively with a 5.93% increase; MOG Coin followed closely with a 3.13% rise; Dash also saw a slight increase of 1.7%.
On the downside, Berachain experienced the deepest decline at -2.73%, Raydium fell back by -2.03%, and Useless Coin dropped by -1.99%, indicating clear market divergence.
In terms of trading activity, BTC remains the core driving force behind spot transactions, maintaining the top spot on the large transaction leaderboard. In the short term, the market shows a typical divergence trend—hot protocol tokens are strengthening, while some ecosystem tokens are under pressure and pulling back.

On January 14th at 14:00 (UTC+8), BTC is currently trading at $95,200, with a 24-hour increase of +4.7%. The intraday high is close to $96,000, showing a strong short-term upward trend, and the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
I. Core Trends and Key Levels (Actionable)
- Daily Trend: Short-term bullish dominance, price above EMA20 ($92,706), breaking through the key resistance at $94,000, with the 200-day moving average (long-term support) sloping upward, indicating a healthy macro trend.
- Support Levels (priority from high to low): $93,800 (strong intraday support), $92,000 (EMA50/EMA20 overlap), $90,600 (critical defense).
- Resistance Levels (priority from high to low): $95,400 (strong intraday resistance), $96,500 (previous high/psychological level), $98,400 (Supertrend resistance).
II. Indicator Signals (TV Commonly Used)
- RSI (Daily): 70.18, entering overbought territory, caution advised for short-term pullback or consolidation risk.
- MACD (Daily): Histogram positive, DIF and DEA above zero line, bullish signal, but watch for shrinking histogram indicating weakening momentum.
- Moving Average System: Price above short-term moving averages, with EMA20 providing support; mid-term 50/100-day moving averages are flattening, with $94,000-$95,000 as a dynamic resistance zone.
- Volume: 24-hour volume increasing on the upside, confirming buying strength when breaking through; however, overall volume during previous sell-off phase remains relatively low, possibly limiting the continuation of a one-sided move.
III. Trading Strategies (Actionable Checklist)
1. Short-term Long: If the price pulls back to stabilize at $93,800-$94,000, consider a small long position with stop-loss below $93,000, target $95,400, and look for a breakout towards $96,500.
2. Breakout Chase Long: If the daily closing price stabilizes above $95,400, add to long positions with a stop-loss moved up to $94,500, targeting $96,500-$98,400.
3. Defensive Short: If the price falls below $93,000 and RSI shows bearish divergence, consider a small short position with a stop-loss above $94,000, targeting $92,000-$90,600.
4. Position Management: Keep single-sided position size ≤30% in trending markets, ≤20% in consolidations; avoid heavy positions during overbought conditions, and take profits in stages.
IV. Market Scenarios and Responses
- Optimistic Scenario: Volume breaks through $95,400 and stabilizes, continuing the rally towards $96,500-$98,400, monitor for volume and RSI divergence.
- Neutral Scenario: Fluctuate within the $94,000-$95,400 range, digest overbought conditions, wait for indicator correction before choosing a direction.
- Pessimistic Scenario: Fall below $93,000 without quick recovery, test the $92,000-$90,600 support zone; if below $90,000, the bullish structure may be compromised.