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The impact of this matter in Venezuela, in the medium to long term, will be the starting point of a commodities bull market.
Venezuela's oil, Chile's copper, Argentina's lithium, and Bolivia's silver—these resources will remain firmly under U.S. "control."
On a deeper level, this is another event accelerating the decoupling of China and the U.S. At least in terms of energy resources, China and the U.S. will build mutually independent core resource supply circles that cannot be interfered with by the other.
In the future, oil, gold, silver, and industrial metals will each have their own buying
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The last trading day of 2025, the A-share index closed at 3968 points, close to the previous view that A-shares will stay around 3965 and not return to 4000 points.
Looking back at the long-term review, I think it was quite reasonable. In September, I mentioned that October would be volatile, and November would hit new highs.
A-shares reached their high point of the year in November. In mid-December, I predicted a small-scale rally at the end of the year, and December saw ten consecutive positive days:
Overall, this year's A-share market performed very well. Although we didn't catch the moment
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CME once again raised leverage ratios, seemingly determined to bring down leverage on precious metals, but the overall trend for non-ferrous metals will not change due to short-term suppression.
In the past month, global silver ETFs have increased by 1,000 tons, and the world's largest physical silver ETF holdings have reached 16,390 tons.
On the surface, LBMA inventories currently hold about 6,000 tons of spot silver, but in reality, they are essentially at zero (silver ETF lock-up), and COMEX inventories continue to be tight.
The latest data for the 1-year silver forward swap rate is -7.09%,
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Last night, silver experienced a sharp decline, and many people thought a major correction was coming. Actually, there's no need to panic so much. The CME raised margin requirements, and combined with overly enthusiastic sentiment, some speculative funds closed their positions en masse.
Silver's gains have indeed been substantial, and a correction was expected. However, this doesn't mean that the long-term fundamentals for silver or other non-ferrous metals are deteriorating. The current safety cushion for silver's correction hasn't been broken yet. From the perspective of futures market posit
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Silver is rising so much it makes me want to cry. The good news is that copper is also rising very well.
Even better news is that Patrick Star also increased by nearly 8 points last night.
Patrick Star's inventory has been cleared out. It's time for Patrick Star to make a comeback.
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Guotou Silver LOF, with such a high premium rate, has hit the limit up again. A-share retail investors have not yet received enough of a beating....
This reminds me of someone in the group who kept having his girlfriend buy silver. To be honest, you should hurry and have your girlfriend sell it.
You shouldn't show me the profits, saying how much it has doubled and how much you earned, it's very strange,
You can't grasp the market for silver, better sell it quickly. I'm not the kind of person who gets sour about it, I'm not envious at all, because I have copper.....
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That means energy storage FLNC has reached the target range, and the corresponding chain in the A-share market is also quite good.
Today, the securities sector in the A-share market performed well too. By the way, Shengyi Technology is also doing great.
In short, as long as you put in the effort with research and meeting notes, and learn to review and analyze, there’s a high probability of making money.
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Is energy storage good? My energy storage stocks have become the brightest star tonight...
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Today, 3,500 A-shares declined, with two standouts: robotics and copper...
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The US stock market's robotics sector is booming... Remember, this will be a long-term main trend for the next 3 to 5 years, and robotics in both the US and Chinese stock markets will reflect each other.
The packaging and testing sector caught on late in the market, but has quietly gained 40%➕. In November, storage is the best reward for packaging and testing.
Copper's gains in the past few days have surpassed gold and silver; the king of non-ferrous metals is about to make a move.
You ask me why I didn't say it earlier—I say you just weren't paying attention...
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Last night I bought some Position in Nvidia at 170. The market's narrative around Nvidia has been quite interesting these days, with big short positions shorting, financial accounting fraud, being replaced by Google.....
The argument that TPU will replace GPU was made last year and is not a narrative unique to Google. In fact, Google and NVIDIA are not competitors.
The market only saw Google's TPU, without realizing that as long as Google completes its hardware capabilities, it achieves the perfect closed loop of AI large models + applications + real physical AI ecosystem.
The real thr
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Last night I bought some positions in Nvidia at 170. The market's narrative around Nvidia has been quite interesting these past few days, with large short positions, financial accounting fraud, and being replaced by Google.....
The argument that TPU will replace CPU has been around since last year and is not a narrative unique to Google. In fact, Google and Nvidia are not competitors.
The market only sees Google's TPU, but does not realize that as long as Google supplements its hardware capabilities, it achieves a perfect closed loop of AI large models + applications + real physical AI
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The volatility on the index level is at a historical level, with the Nasdaq experiencing an intraday fluctuation of over 4.5%, the S&P 500 index with an intraday fluctuation of over 5.5%, and the VIX index with an intraday fluctuation of over 35%.
In the absence of external black swan events (such as a pandemic), the index has opened high and then declined, with such a high intraday volatility; in the history of the US stock market, this has only happened once before, on April 8. Investors in the US stock market during Trump's term have been fortunate, witnessing two historical market even
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Seeing some partners in the group talk about the combination of positions, I would also like to share my current holdings.
Current Holdings are mainly in pharmaceuticals and gold and silver, accounting for 33%, while the position equivalent to cash accounts for 30%, and electric energy accounts for 14%.
The tech position mainly consists of mid to upstream semiconductor stocks, accounting for 19%, and a bit of financial credit position (which is deeply trapped).
However, this is just for mid-November to mid-December. After December 10th, there will be another allocation, reducing cash Position
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I saw some partners in the group talking about the combination of positions, so I would like to share my current holdings.
Currently, the holdings are primarily in pharmaceuticals and gold and silver, accounting for 36%, while the cash position accounts for 30%, and electricity and energy for 14%.
The technology positions mainly include midstream and upstream stocks in semiconductors, totaling 19%.
However, this is only for mid-November to mid-December. After December 10th, there will be another allocation, reducing cash Position and decreasing the proportion of pharmaceutical stocks.
Why are
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The lower the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in December, the deeper the worries about the AI bubble.
The expected strength of the reversal and the height of the pullback will be more intense.
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Today, I bought a bit of brokerage stocks in the A-shares. The brokerage sector is currently the only zone in the A-shares with certain performance and has not experienced a big pump.
As the end of the year approaches, A-share fund managers begin to sell technology stocks, protect profits, and compete for rankings, which is an old tradition.
However, protecting profits does not mean selling short positions, as funds have a rigid demand for holdings. Therefore, they generally choose areas with confirmed performance, good liquidity, and low price increases.
The performance of the brokerage indus
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