DanielRomero

$AMD will crush earnings this year
Wait and see

2 lukewarm takes
$AMZN should be worth considerably more than $MSFT
Jassy is a better CEO than Nadella

314% total return on $NBIS and 365% on $MU in a year (while averaging up)
Wild that these two could go up another 100% in a year and still feel fairly valued

Who could’ve said we were short compute?
Maybe you could’ve listened to all industry insiders
Or looked at $NVDA being sold out
Or the GPU rental prices
Or noticed hyperscalers scrambling to lock in capacity long term
The best moment to buy $NBIS was when everyone was bashing the neocloud model

What went wrong with $IREN lately?

Photonics companies are extremely hyped
Still, many of these stocks aren’t expensive at all
$NVDA is going to be much more aggressive with CPO than $AVGO
$LITE, $COHR, and $TSEM are the 3 companies most closely tied to the NVIDIA photonics ecosystem
I’d expect some surprises in these companies’ earnings, even more so by 2027

Morgan Stanley estimates that $GOOG will ship only 25% fewer AI accelerator units than $NVDA in 2027

I’m amazed by how fast the market can turn from apocalyptic to uber bullish
We went from semi investors going long LNG and buying $SMH puts to pushing photonics stocks to 30x sales and $INTC to new highs

Bookmark this: Memory doesn’t peak until 2028, and $MU re-rates 100% from here

UBS raises their $MU PT to $535 (from $510)
We raise our price target from $510 to $535 based on the same SOTP valuation method. We derive ~$405 of value for MU’s Core DRAM+NAND ex-HBM business applying an unchanged ~3x P/S multiple in line with the 3-yr average prior to C2024, when MU had no HBM contributions on C27E revenue of $187.7B. Similarly, we derive ~$132 of value for MU’s HBM business by applying a ~6x P/S multiple unchanged on C27E revenue of $27.9B.

The numbers coming out of Samsung are absurd
My issue is the overhang risk of union-led strikes
Either Samsung gives up 20% of its operating profit, or it could face a production shutdown
If not for that, I think the stock would be performing much stronger

$SIVE has 4x more debt than cash and a 9-month runway
The stock went up 4x after becoming a new Fintwit favourite
If management is competent, they will do a raise to clean up their debt
They are paying 10%+ rates with already weak financials
If they do a large raise, it will signal they are serious about expansion and not just focusing on maintaining their ownership

If we annualize Q1 earnings
Memory makers are trading roughly at:
- $MU: 6x operating profit
- $SSNLF: 8x operating profit
- $HYNSE: 5x operating profit

The average Fintwit experience is being told to buy a bottleneck supplier early, then checking the chart and seeing that it looks like this

Erste Group upgraded $AMD to Buy from Hold because it sees stronger data center demand, better profitability, and a more attractive product setup than before
The note says AMD expects Q1 2026 revenue growth of 32% year over year, driven by rising demand for high performance data center CPUs and GPUs
The analyst also highlighted AMD’s improving operating margin trend and argued that the valuation still looks attractive, with the article citing a PEG ratio of 0.49 and saying AMD appears undervalued based on fair value calculations
A key part of the bullish view is the upcoming Instinct MI450, bu