BTC_POWER_LA

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BTC_POWER_LA

4h ago

This is if we smooth n over 1 year. Clear oscillation around the 5.8. The values are narrow when smoothed over a reasonable amount of time.

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BTC_POWER_LA

4h ago

Amazing graph, it shows the value of the slope of the power law smoothed over 30 days vs the change in the slope. The color coding refers to days above or below the power law.
The remarkable thing that the average value is n=5.8 and dn/dt=0 meaning the value is stable in time.
The value n=5.8 is an attractor for Bitcoin dynamics.

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BTC_POWER_LA

6h ago

If the log periodic model turns up to be true and confirmed it would be very cool because then both the long term trajectory and oscillations are due to a single complex exponent power law of the form:
P(t)= t^(beta+ i omega) where beta=5.8, omega = 8, and i is the imaginary number.
How cool that would be?

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BTC_POWER_LA

7h ago

Don't think about the power law as a single line. It is a multilane highway to 10M BTC.
Even when we don't move on the main lane we still go up in average with the power law slope. This is not just an optical illusion but confirmed by the stability of the parameter n, the slope of the power law measured on a daily basis.
P. S. Notice even now we simply move in a parallel fashion to the reference power law.

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BTC_POWER_LA

7h ago

By the way I'm still settling on the final cover but if you sent me a variation of this one please DM me for a free printed copy of the book (value $60).

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BTC_POWER_LA

10h ago

We live in a sci-fi world and some people are still flat-earthers.

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BTC_POWER_LA

10h ago

Our magnificent home. This mission reached the farthest distance humans ever achieved from the earth (this picture was taken when the capsule was still relatively close).

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BTC_POWER_LA

10h ago

Humanity at its best.
So incredibly proud.
This is when America represents the world.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-07 00:26

Power laws everywhere.
Lunar craters follow a power-law size-frequency distribution, where smaller craters are significantly more abundant than larger ones. The cumulative size distribution generally fits an equation N(D) = cD^b, with slopes b typically ranging from -2 to -3.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-07 00:23

Power laws on the moon.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-06 21:26

Network effects >>> scarcity for Bitcoin
A common misconception about Bitcoin: "The 21M cap creates scarcity, and scarcity drives price."
This misses the actual mechanism. Let me explain why the power law is fundamentally about network effects, not supply constraints.
Thread:
1/ If Bitcoin's price was driven by fixed supply meeting growing demand, we'd expect a linear relationship: P ∝ N (where N = number of users).
But we observe P ∝ N^1.83. That's quadratic scaling, not linear.
Where does that extra exponent come from? Network effects.
2/ Consider the historical evidence: Bitcoin's supply i

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-06 19:12

Real science vs economy models that do not apply to Bitcoin.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-06 03:00

I need some feedback for the books, is this type of style good for the book?
I started with darker background but I think for the printed book the white background works better.
I'm using dates and financial values on the y axis (avoiding scientific notation that some people dislike).
Is this good to go?

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-05 09:43

Very good introduction to network theory.
Everybody mentions that Bitcoin is a network but they never go deep in understanding how networks behave.
Link to the video in the comments.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-05 06:16

Paper submitted to Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena.
Wish us luck.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-03 20:36

The type of paper the Scientific Bitcoin Institute will produce to establish the soundness of a Bitcoin standard economy.

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-03 19:32

It is just a partial result and explorative study at this point. I will go deeper.
But I asked the question, what happens when Bitcoin becomes the monetary standard?
Would an economy survive with a fixed money supply or to go a death spiral?
Many economists say it will go to a death spiral.
The answer is no, it doesn't necessarily.
Even in this simple toy model (not agent based but done this by solving differential equations) shows stable solutions.
I will share more result as I make the model more realistic.
Key Results (50-year simulation):
Growth & Deflation Equilibrium:
Real GDP grows

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BTC_POWER_LA

04-03 19:21

It is kind of crazy a scientific paper has been downloaded almost 3000 times.
If you didn't read the paper yet, you will find the link in the comments.
First paper to show systematically that the Bitcoin power law is a real phenomenon.

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