Rate cut practically confirmed for December.
The ADP data came out spectacularly bad. And in the current context, bad employment data is good for the market.
Why? Because it increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates next week.

Bitcoin in key support zone.
We start December with a significant correction. With no headline, for no apparent reason. It simply falls.
The price drop doesn't seem unusual to me. We were expecting it to test those lows again. What's interesting is how it's falling.
In this Glassnode image, it is very clear where we are. The price of Bitcoin is right in the zone where several key metrics converge:
- True Market Mean (green media)
- Active Realized Price (yellow media)
- Short-Term Holders Cost Basis (red media)
All these averages have historically acted as support in bullish market

Something in crypto has BROKEN.
On 10/10, some Market Maker went bankrupt.
An operational bankruptcy:
The MM suffers such large losses that it can no longer operate, but the company still exists (is not legally bankrupt, so it has no obligation to disclose anything publicly).
This would cause 20-40% of market making to disappear (increased volatility of x2-x4).
The risk falls on the rest of MM that may be "touched" taking a step back, as they do not want to assume that risk in the current situation.
This lack of market creation leads to an increase in volatility and an increase in the Sell Of

Watch out for this data.
When Bitcoin closes the month of November in red, it has historically also closed the month of December in red.
It's time to break this streak, I think we could see a green December.

If you invert the BTC chart, you would go short, not long.
I had to do it, sorry.

Renko Chart BTC:
Do you really think this is so outrageous? 👇

My thesis on Bitcoin: We will see a bounce back that could take us to $97,000-$100,000.
Although there are two possible paths:
1. Correction before uploading
Retracement to $84,000-$83,000 (zone 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci) to build a floor structure and then attack $93,000-$97,000.
2. Direct impulse
Break the previous high from here and go straight to $93,000 without prior correction.
There is a lot of short liquidity waiting above $97,000 acting like a magnet.

Bitcoin is falling toward the True Market Mean (blue line).
Historically, every time the price touches this line, significant market bottoms are formed. In 2018 and 2022, we marked lows exactly there.
The AVIV Ratio (upper yellow line) is turning down from highs. This indicates we are entering a zone of maximum pain and capitulation.
When the price touches the True Market Mean with the AVIV Ratio dropping from these levels, macro bottoms have historically formed.
We are at the last support before losing the structure completely.

First snowfall, time to put snow tires on my cars ❄️☃️
Winter is my favorite season, it boosts my focus.

The most important reason for the drops, the rate cuts...
Sometimes everything is simpler than it seems. And they have just shot up 👇

Bitcoin is falling, absorbing all the liquidity along the way without forming a bottom.
Below there are many long liquidations between $85,000-$88,000.
But above: an outrageous amount of shorts accumulated.
A bounce towards $98,000-$101,000 could occur imminently.

When the CNN index falls to 9 (extreme panic), a month later the market/sp500 is positive 79% of the time.
The average return one month later: +1.67%.
Extreme fear can mark temporary bottoms.