$75,000 Surprise Night: Bitcoin Faith Crisis or Deep Squat Jump?

What is the market experiencing as "digital gold" falls below institutional cost lines?

In the early hours of February 1st, the cryptocurrency market experienced a textbook-level liquidity crisis. Bitcoin's price suddenly "spiked" down to $75,719.9, a figure like a sharp surgical knife precisely cutting through the market's most vulnerable nerves—this is the first time since November 2024 that it has fallen below the $80,000 mark, and nearly a year since Bitcoin's "7" prefix reappeared.

What’s even more chilling for the market is that this price has pierced through the average cost line of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest Bitcoin holding institution globally.

1. Giant's Unrealized Gains Turn Zero: Strategy's "Darkest Hour"

According to the latest disclosed data, Strategy currently holds 712,647 BTC, with a total investment of about $54.19 billion, and an average holding cost of $76,037 per BTC. In January, the company continued to add positions in the $90,000 range, demonstrating a firm belief of "buying more as it falls."

However, this decline caused a dramatic reversal in this Bitcoin believer’s books—billions of dollars in unrealized gains evaporated within minutes, even briefly turning into technical unrealized losses.

This is not just a numbers game. Strategy’s aggressive strategy of issuing new shares and leveraging debt has made its cost basis a key "psychological defense line" in the market. When this line is breached, a chain reaction quickly spreads: highly leveraged long positions face chain liquidations, liquidity dries up in a short period, forming a classic "death spiral" decline.

But it’s worth noting that the price quickly rebounded from $75,719, indicating that deep market demand still exists. This flash crash seems more like a cleansing of weak hands rather than a complete trend reversal.

2. Triple Black Swans: The Last Straw That Buried the Market

1. Geopolitical Conflict Clouds

Multiple videos circulating on X platform show explosions across Iran. Although the US and Israel have yet to make official statements, the market has already voted with real money. Just days ago, movements of US aircraft carriers and Iran’s tough responses caused sharp volatility in risk assets like gold.

In the 24/7 Bitcoin market, uncertainty is always priced in first.

2. US Government Shutdown Impact on Liquidity

On the early morning of January 31, local time, the US government officially entered partial shutdown. With House members unable to return to Washington until February 2 (Monday), a short-term shutdown is now a certainty.

Historical data shows that during government shutdowns, key economic data releases (such as non-farm payrolls, CPI) are delayed, causing markets to lose their basis for judging Federal Reserve policy directions, often leading to increased volatility. More critically, hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity are locked up, and combined with the already thin weekend liquidity, forming a "liquidity vacuum."

3. Collective Fear on Monday

Epic crashes in gold and silver, and rumors of US banks starting to fail, are all pricing in uncertainty. What will happen on February 2? Global markets are holding their breath. This "unknown fear" is often more destructive than known risks.

3. Technical Breakdown: The Life and Death Battle of Key Support Levels

Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske’s previously proposed key support levels are being tested one by one:

• $80,000: Previously about 127,000 BTC bought at this level, an important psychological defense line

• $74,000: A deeper support zone, also seen as a "bottom-fishing zone" by many institutional big players

• $70,000 / $58,000 / $50,000: Extreme scenario plans for stepwise declines

Trader Merlijn The Trader pointed out that once below $80,000, the support below the $73,000 range is weak, potentially triggering more severe panic selling.

From a technical analysis perspective, the RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, and a short-term rebound to $89,000 could occur as a "technical correction," but the overall trend remains weak. Until Bitcoin re-establishes above $90,000, market confidence cannot substantially recover.

4. The End or the Beginning? Is $70,000 the Final Destination or the Starting Point?

An intriguing data point is that the peak of the 2021 bull market was exactly at $69,000. The current price is already very close to this historic high.

Reviewing Bitcoin’s historical cycles, each time it nears previous highs, intense volatility ensues—an intense game of profit-taking versus new capital inflows. But unlike previous times, the market structure has fundamentally changed:

• Increased institutionalization: Continuous buying by institutions like Strategy, BlackRock, etc., has altered the distribution of holdings

• ETF inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become important stabilizers of the price

• Complex macro environment: Intertwined factors like Federal Reserve interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and global recession risks

5. Investor Revelation: Finding Opportunities in Panic

Extreme market conditions often come with costly emotional decisions.

For holders: If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value, current volatility is just a small episode in a long journey. Strategy’s continued accumulation strategy essentially embodies the philosophy of "time as a friend."

For the cautious: Placeholder VC’s advice is worth considering—short-term ups and downs are not the core focus. If prices rebound, hold and gradually diversify; if a deep correction occurs, see it as an opportunity to add Bitcoin and quality crypto assets.

For leveraged traders: During periods of increased volatility, reducing leverage and setting strict stop-losses are the first rules for survival. History repeatedly proves that liquidations often happen just before the darkest hour.

The market always rewards those who remain rational when others are fearful. Is $75,000 Bitcoin the end of a bull market or the start of a new cycle? The answer may only be revealed in a few months. But one thing is certain: every extreme market test is a challenge to investors’ cognition and resilience.

What are your thoughts on this crash? Where do you think Bitcoin’s bottom is? Share your views in the comments—follow, like, share, and comment to witness the next historic moment in the cryptocurrency market with us!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make independent judgments based on your own situation.