Let's discuss the overall logic of this gold bull market.

Before the Bretton Woods system, global currencies were pegged to the US dollar, which was backed by gold, and other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar. After this system ended, gold prices rose from $35 to $800. Meanwhile, the US dollar shifted from being gold-backed to being backed by US Treasuries. Theoretically, as long as the US does not default on its debt, the dollar's credit remains intact. The current problem lies with US Treasuries, which amount to nearly $40 trillion. At a 5% interest rate, they require an annual payment of $2 trillion, an unsustainable figure for the US government. The US government's healthy debt servicing capacity is below $1 trillion, which would imply a reduction in interest rates to below 2.5%. This also depends on the US controlling the expansion of its debt scale.

Secondly, Trump's weak dollar policy. During the Bush Jr. era, the dollar index fell to around 80. Trump's weak dollar policy would also push the dollar toward this target level.

The cycle of rate cuts and a weak dollar will boost commodity prices in a bull market. Under conditions of high dollar creditworthiness, this is a predictable pattern.

Thirdly, the creditworthiness of the dollar. The wavering of dollar credit is not about US hegemony; in fact, hegemonic status supports the strengthening of dollar credit. Currently, countries are losing confidence in the US government's ability to limit the expansion of its debt. They do not believe the US can prevent excessive debt expansion. As long as this out-of-control situation persists, US debt default becomes a matter of when, not if.

The current global monetary system forms a chain: the Fed holds gold and US Treasuries, US Treasuries back the dollar, and the dollar backs other fiat currencies. As long as US Treasuries are stable, this chain remains intact. If US Treasuries face problems, central banks worldwide will naturally shift their reserves from dollars to other currencies, with gold serving as the best monetary reserve due to its inherent properties.

Thus, originally, gold only needed to be a reserve for the dollar. Now, it must also serve as a reserve for other countries, leading to a significant increase in demand for gold. However, the supply of gold cannot meet this increased demand.

Currently, the price of gold relative to credit currencies is driven by two major factors: 1. Excessive issuance of credit money, and 2. Demand from central banks.

As long as the US debt issue remains unresolved, the logic of the gold bull market will not change.