SOL Technical Outlook: Solana Breaks Cycle Base as Bearish Expansion Accelerates

Solana has decisively broken below its long-standing cycle base support near $116–$120, confirming a continuation of the broader corrective downtrend from the cycle high. The failure to hold the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement ($149) earlier marked a structural lower high, and the subsequent breakdown below horizontal demand has shifted market control firmly to sellers.

Price is now trading within the macro demand zone around $102–$110, where short-term reaction is possible. However, overall structure remains decisively bearish, and downside risk persists unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

EMA Structure (Strong Bearish Alignment)

20 EMA: $125.73

50 EMA: $131.86

100 EMA: $142.70

200 EMA: $155.27

SOL is trading well below all major EMAs, with the 20/50 EMA cluster around $126–$132 acting as immediate dynamic resistance. The wide separation between short-term and long-term EMAs reflects strong downside momentum and confirms trend continuation rather than exhaustion.

Fibonacci & Market Structure

1.0 Fib (Cycle High): $253.47

0.786 Fib: $224.22

0.618 Fib: $201.25

0.5 Fib: $185.12

0.382 Fib: $168.09

0.236 Fib: $149.03

Fib 0: $116.77

Solana remains firmly below the 0.236 Fibonacci level, confirming structural weakness. The loss of Fib 0 ($116.77) has invalidated the prior accumulation range and exposes SOL to extended downside within the $102–$110 macro demand zone.

A sustained reclaim above $130–$135 is required to neutralize immediate bearish pressure, while acceptance back above $149 would be needed to signal a broader corrective recovery.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14) is currently trading near 26, deep in oversold territory. While this suggests selling pressure may slow and a short-term relief bounce is possible, the absence of bullish divergence indicates that momentum exhaustion has not yet translated into reversal structure.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$126–$132 (20/50 EMA zone)

$149 (0.236 Fib / breakdown level)

$168 (0.382 Fib)

Support

$110–$102 (macro demand zone)

Below $102: downside extension risk toward psychological sub-$100 levels

RSI: 26 — oversold, bearish

📌 Summary

Solana has entered an accelerated bearish phase after losing its cycle base support and failing to reclaim key Fibonacci resistance. The broader structure remains decisively bearish below $149, with EMAs reinforcing strong downside control.

While oversold conditions may trigger a short-term technical bounce, any upside is currently corrective unless SOL reclaims $130–$135, followed by $149. Failure to hold the $102–$110 demand zone would likely result in further downside expansion.

$SOL ‌