Why does what was agreed upon before always get interpreted in the opposite way? Uncovering the truth behind the timing of the bull market

Many investors plan to focus on the bull market only before the end of the year, but they fail to realize they have stepped into a classic trap. Looking back at market history, those who suffer real significant losses are not necessarily those who bought at the absolute top, but rather those who bought in high-volatility zones that “look particularly safe.” This is the market’s falsehood—what appears to be stable often conceals the greatest risks.

Bottom Refinement and High-Position Temptation: Why Losses Always Occur at Seemingly Safe Moments

During the prolonged oscillation at the bottom, investors’ emotions are continuously worn down, and patience gradually runs out. Many start saying, “Wait a bit longer, until more confirmed signals appear.” However, it is precisely at this moment that the market is quietly brewing the next upward wave.

The real danger lies in another scenario: when the bottom has been refined long enough, the sideways high positions are stable enough, and market sentiment has recovered to calmness, everyone begins to believe “it’s stable now.” This is exactly when the main capital starts distributing chips. New retail investors rush in confidently, only to find that as soon as they enter, funds start to withdraw. This recurring pattern has become the basic rhythm of the market.

Expect to Buy or Fact to Buy: The Eternal Rhythm of Capital Markets

There is a simple yet cruel rule in capital market operation: Expect to buy, actually sell.

All kinds of positive news that were promised in advance often lose their upward momentum by the time they arrive. This is because smart capital has already completed its layout during the expectation phase. When good news lands, headlines flood the media, and everyone starts discussing “how great this wave of market is,” the distribution phase has already begun. The moment you see certainty, it is precisely when institutions and large players start to exit.

Many investors misunderstand the market logic. They believe that “waiting until all positive news is confirmed” is safe, but in reality, by then, the price is no longer the layout price but the distribution price. When everyone is reading news, analyzing reports, and hearing “experts say it’s good,” the market has already entered the risk release stage.

The Truth in the Chips Game: The Logic of Capital Transfer from Early to Late Fools

Investors who suffered heavy losses last year, the year before, and the year before that, are not fundamentally wrong about the direction; they are simply crushed by the market’s rhythm. Those who grasped the right timing are actually the “early fools” who sold chips to the “late fools.”

On the surface, it seems to be a market problem, but the deeper essence is a problem with the opposing side. The market is never a fair arena; it is merely a chip transfer mechanism—from hesitant hands to early recognizers. When most people are still waiting for more certain signals, a few have already completed their layout.

The phenomenon of long-term oscillation at the bottom itself is a psychological test of the market: testing whether you truly believe in this round of market. A bull market will not reward those seeking absolute certainty; instead, it will harvest all the hesitators. When everyone dares to buy, the price is no longer the price for you to get in but the price for earlier layouters to exit.

This is the complete logic of market operation and also why the stories told before often replay in different ways. It’s not about whether you see the bull market or not, but whether you have the courage to act when most people are still on the sidelines. Investors who choose to wait when all macro positive signals have not fully materialized and the market is still full of doubt have already placed themselves in a dangerous position.