Tom Lee's forecasts for 2026: temporary correction but Bitcoin on the way to new records

Chief Fundstrat analyst, Tom Lee, anticipates a 2026 marked by macroeconomic turbulence before a re-acceleration. According to his analysis, increasing geopolitical tensions, risks of trade wars, and political polarization create a volatile environment likely to cause a significant decline in financial markets and digital assets during the year.

An expected correction before recovery

Tom Lee estimates that the U.S. stock market index could experience a drop of between 15% and 20% in 2026, a scenario that would fit within a normal cyclical correction. However, this analyst remains optimistic about the markets’ future trajectory. He predicts that conditions will improve once the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance and ends quantitative tightening policies.

In this re-acceleration scenario, markets could see a vigorous rebound by the end of 2026, offsetting losses recorded in the early months. Tom Lee emphasizes that this correction-recovery cycle is characteristic of developed markets in a monetary transition phase.

Bitcoin will confirm its rebound with a new all-time high

Despite these short-term risks, Tom Lee maintains a strong conviction regarding Bitcoin. He expects the cryptocurrency to establish a new all-time high in 2026. This analyst considers that a new ATH (all-time high) would be a decisive step allowing the market to fully surpass the risk-off event of October 10, which marked one of the biggest resets of the current cycle.

For your information, Bitcoin already surpassed $126,000 at the beginning of 2026, confirming the anticipated bullish momentum. A new record would signal the restoration of confidence and the start of a durable structural recovery in digital assets.

2026 asset allocation: gold, energy, and digital assets in the lead

To navigate the uncertainties of 2026, Tom Lee identifies several asset categories as particularly attractive. Gold, energy, and commodities emerge as high-quality allocations in a macroeconomic instability context. These traditional assets offer protection against volatility and geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, Tom Lee anticipates that artificial intelligence and blockchain will continue to benefit from structural growth trends in the medium and long term, even if short-term volatility persists. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, shares this balanced view, suggesting that precious metals could outperform cryptocurrencies during certain periods of 2026, especially if macroeconomic pressures remain high.

The recommended strategy for 2026 thus relies on diversification between defensive assets (gold, energy) and growth assets (AI, blockchain), enabling investors to profit from the recovery scenario outlined by Tom Lee while protecting against short-term risks.