2026 First Trading Day: #BTC Has Officially Entered the "Fund-Driven Stage"

On January 2nd, $BTC BTC spot #ETF net inflow of 471 million USD.
The significance of this number is far more important than "whether it will rise today."
Because just prior to this, in November–December:
Spot BTC ETF net outflows totaled approximately 4.57 billion USD
Including a single-month net outflow of 1.09 billion USD in December
A large number of retail investors panicked and sold at the 90K–93K range
And now——
Institutions bought back nearly one-tenth in one day.
Meanwhile, three key capital signals appeared simultaneously:
🟢 Federal Reserve balance sheet increased by about 59.4 billion USD week-over-week
🟢 New whale holdings surpassed 100,000 BTC (about 12 billion USD)
🟢 BTC rebounded from 87.5K to 93K (+6.8%)
This is not a coincidence; it’s a structural shift in the capital market.
Rally in 2025 relies on narratives
Rally in 2026 relies on real money
The market enters the second phase.
01｜Three "simultaneous" key signals
Signal 1: ETFs are reversing selling pressure
What happened in the past two months?
Retail investors panic at high levels
ETF outflows continue
Sentiment is extremely pessimistic
But on January 2nd:
Single-day net inflow of 471 million USD
The highest since November 11, 2025
What does this indicate?
👉 Institutions are taking over from retail investors who are selling at a loss
Adding a few key facts:
BlackRock IBIT accounts for nearly 70% of spot BTC ETF trading volume
A single ETF holds 770,000 BTC
US crypto ETFs have traded over 2 trillion USD in total
ETFs are now the highway for institutions to allocate BTC.
Signal 2: The Fed has ended "draining" and started "refilling"
Since March 2022, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet:
From 9 trillion → 6.6 trillion
Removing about 2.4 trillion USD in liquidity
Everyone has experienced:
2022: Nasdaq -33%, BTC -65%
2023: Rate hikes + FTX + chain of collapses
But now, the direction has changed.
On December 1, 2025: QT officially ended
Starting in January, the Fed shifted to "Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)"
Latest data:
WALCL increased by 59.4 billion USD week-over-week
This is not QE, but it’s no longer tightening.
For BTC, the only meaning is:
👉 Liquidity bottom has been confirmed
Signal 3: New whales are taking over
On-chain data is very clear:
New addresses holding over 100,000 BTC
Tether bought 8,888 BTC on New Year’s Eve
Long-term holders are turning into net accumulators
But a controversial point needs clarification:
CryptoQuant points out:
Some "whale hoarding" may be internal exchange wallets
After filtering, the conclusion is:
Traditional large whales (old addresses) are slightly reducing holdings at high levels
Real buying comes from: ETFs + new whales (diversified addresses)
This is not a bad thing.
👉 This is the generational shift of chips
👉 A healthier market structure with more dispersed holdings
02｜Why do institutions always enter when retail investors are selling at a loss?
First layer: Liquidity direction determines victory or defeat
History will not simply repeat but will rhyme:
2020 QE → BTC from 3,800 to 69,000
2022–2023 QT → All risk assets collapse
2026: QT ends, liquidity marginally improves
Once the direction changes, capital will act in advance.
Second layer: ETFs have changed the game rules
Before ETFs:
Cold wallets
Private keys
Compliance risks
Operational costs
After ETFs:
Broker accounts with a few clicks
Can include pension funds, FO, sovereign funds
Highly liquid
December outflows reflect retail sentiment;
January inflows reflect institutional discipline.
Third layer: The cost structure of the new generation of whales is different
Old whales: hundreds to thousands of USD
New whales: 50,000–70,000 USD
For the former, 90K is the end point
For the latter, 90K is just the beginning
Tether is a typical example:
Buy BTC quarterly with 15% profit
Execute for 10 consecutive quarters
Average cost: 51,117 USD
Floating profit has exceeded 3.5 billion USD
This is not luck; it’s institutionalized buying.
03｜Three risks that cannot be ignored
Risk 1: Whale data may be overestimated
Internal wallet organization ≠ genuine buying
What truly drives prices is continuous small-volume buying
ETFs are the main engine
This is typical of a slow bull market.
Risk 2: Balance sheet expansion is "limited"
Currently, it’s RMP, not QE:
Scale is much smaller than 2020
No "reckless surge"
👉 This round of market is not a crazy bull, but a slow bull led by capital
Risk 3: The time gap between retail and institutions
Institutions look at 4 years
Retail investors look at 4 weeks
The result is always:
Retail panic → Institutions buy
Retail FOMO → Institutions sell
This was demonstrated once in November–December.
04｜2026 vs 2025: Fundamental differences
2025: Narrative-driven
Halving
ETF launch
Expectations dominate
2026: Capital-driven
Fed marginal easing
Continuous ETF subscriptions
Long-term institutional allocation
Narratives will fade,
but capital will remain.
This rally is more like 2019–2024 gold,
not the crazy BTC of 2021.
05｜Three conclusions for ordinary investors
First, watch capital flows, not K-lines
ETF inflows
Fed balance sheet
Long-term on-chain holders
These are more important than any indicator.
Second, go against human nature
Buy when panicking
Sell when excited
Otherwise, you will always be liquidity.
Third, accept the slow bull
Monthly gains of 5–10%
Lasts for 12–18 months
Pullbacks of 15–20%, not halts
This is actually the easiest market to hold.
Final words
When you start studying "capital flows"
rather than "predicting prices,"
you are already ahead of most people.
In December, retail investors sold at 93K.
In January, institutions added at 87K.
The gap is right here.