2025 US stocks closed with a big rally, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks sounded like warning needles—"Stock prices are already quite overvalued." This statement could become a watershed in 2026.

The data is here: the Shiller Price-to-Earnings ratio has surged to 40.74, getting closer to the peak of the internet bubble. Looking back through history, there have only been six times in over 150 years when the Shiller P/E exceeded 30. And what happened in the previous five cases? All ended in bear markets, with no exceptions.

How scary was the decline? Starting at 20%, at its deepest, nearly halving close to 90%. Although the Federal Reserve doesn't directly manipulate the stock market, the high valuation environment is signaling a potential policy change. The market is still cheering and celebrating, but few remember—bubbles are never infinite.

Bull markets typically last around three years, definitely longer than bear markets. But the problem is, once the crash begins, that panic can wipe out most investors' holdings. The pattern of history repeats itself time and again.

Will a big storm really come in 2026? This time, do you feel confident you can withstand it?