12/31 Market Analysis

As the year comes to an end, the market's gains and losses over the past year have become experience and confidence. The market journey is inherently volatile; turbulence is growth, and perseverance is accumulation.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's December minutes released complex signals: officials acknowledged the reasonableness of rate cuts, but there are significant disagreements on timing and magnitude, with January's steady interest rate being the mainstream expectation. The short-term government bond purchase plan already launched marks the beginning of a loose liquidity cycle for the coming year, providing potential support for the crypto market.

Currently, the market is hindered by resistance and weak year-end liquidity sentiment. Most bullish attempts are false signals, and the weak consolidation pattern remains unchanged. Bitcoin needs to firmly defend the 86,000-86,500 support zone; if broken, it could fall to 84,000. Ethereum must defend the 2,880-2,900 critical support line; a breakdown could see it testing 2,800.

Before institutions return on January 2, the market is likely to be low-volatility and highly sensitive. A trend reversal requires a volume breakout above resistance levels (Bitcoin 90,000, Ethereum 3,050) or a daily reversal candlestick at support levels indicating a stop of decline.

Signals are unclear; the core strategy is absolute defense: reduce frequency, control positions and leverage, set precise stop-loss and take-profit points, and avoid counter-trend betting.

The crypto market will conclude in 2025; turbulence is a self-calibration, and past experiences are wealth. In 2026, may we remain rational and steadfast, awaiting the market's spring bloom.