Gold and silver shine breakthrough, why is Bitcoin still stuck at $90,000?

Market Segmentation Phenomenon Becoming More Apparent

Recently, an interesting market phenomenon has emerged—precious metals collectively hitting new highs, the stock market also recovering from lows, yet Bitcoin repeatedly struggles around the $90,000 mark. On Thursday, December 12th(, this scene was especially striking: silver surged 5% to break through its $64 historical high, gold also rose over 1% approaching $4,300, U.S. stock indices saw the Dow Jones rise 1.3%, the S&P 500 closed slightly higher, and Nasdaq, though down, only declined by 0.25%.

However, Bitcoin appears somewhat “lagging behind” in this rebound. Its latest quote fluctuates around $87,600 (roughly 600,000 RMB when converted at real-time exchange rates), with a 24-hour change of only +0.02%, far below the performance of other assets. This reflects a core issue: the “decoupling” trend between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets is strengthening.

Why can precious metals and stocks break through, but Bitcoin seems powerless?

After the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on Wednesday, the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since mid-October. Logically, a depreciating dollar should be a boon for all “anti-fiat” assets (including gold, silver, and Bitcoin). Precious metals indeed seized this opportunity, but Bitcoin’s reaction was noticeably insufficient.

Jasper De Maere, an analyst at Wintermute Trading, pointed out the crux: the market has fully digested the rate cut expectations. In other words, investors’ imagination of a dovish shift in Fed policy has been exhausted. Data from the past year shows that only 18% of macro event trading days saw Bitcoin outperform Nasdaq. Thursday was a typical example—when U.S. stocks rebounded, cryptocurrencies actually declined, indicating that the marginal appeal of easing policies to the crypto circle is diminishing.

More concerning is that investors’ focus has shifted from Fed policy to U.S. cryptocurrency regulation policies. This change in sentiment could become the dominant factor influencing Bitcoin’s next phase, and regulatory uncertainty often exerts more downward pressure on prices than policy expectations.

Selling pressure is weakening, but not enough to reverse the trend

Data analysis firm Swissblock provides a relatively optimistic signal: Bitcoin’s selling pressure is gradually diminishing. The firm notes that the second wave of selling was significantly weaker than the first, with sellers not increasing their positions, indicating market stabilization.

But this is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s performance in the fourth quarter has indeed been disappointing. It failed to effectively break through $125,000 earlier, then faced fierce suppression during the dollar’s strength, with a maximum decline of 36.22%, once dropping near $80,000. After the dollar weakened, Bitcoin did rebound, but the recovery was noticeably less than the “mirror” decline of the dollar, indicating that bullish confidence is gradually waning.

Looking at the weekly chart, the past three weeks’ candlesticks all show prominent upper shadows, meaning each rebound faced persistent selling pressure. Especially at the critical $90,000 level, Bitcoin has consistently struggled to stabilize above it, forming a psychological “pressure zone.”

Daily Chart: Higher lows are gradually forming

However, from a daily chart perspective, the situation isn’t entirely pessimistic. Since Bitcoin dipped to $80,000, it has gradually formed a “higher low” structure—an encouraging technical signal. Meanwhile, market acceptance of the $90,000 level is increasing, and rebound highs are slowly rising, such as Monday’s peak at $94,652.

This provides a technical basis for the bulls. On shorter timeframes, the dual structure of higher highs and higher lows has already appeared, laying the groundwork for further upward movement.

Four-hour chart: An ascending triangle is emerging

More interestingly, on the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is building an ascending triangle pattern. The previous support level has turned into horizontal resistance around $93,961. Once this level is broken, the next key resistance zone points below $100,000, with the previous high of $99,939 potentially becoming the main target for bulls.

Two paths lie ahead

Currently, Bitcoin’s trend presents two completely opposite interpretations:

Bullish perspective: The recent breakdown lacks sustainability; the formation of higher lows provides a foundation for upward movement; the short-term chart shows early signs of breakout potential.

Bearish perspective: Despite the clear weakening of the dollar and the breakout of gold and silver, Bitcoin still shows weakness, which indicates a severe lack of upward momentum—this is the biggest risk signal.

Overall, although Bitcoin’s price in RMB reflects a huge numerical value, its market performance relative to the favorable external environment is underwhelming. The key going forward is whether it can effectively break through the $90,000 resistance zone and how U.S. regulatory policies evolve. In the short term, the $93,000 to $94,000 range will be the main battleground for bulls and bears.