Weekly Summary # Bitcoin targets 94500 and 89000, Ethereum focuses on 3450 for offense and defense, weekly volatility revolves around extremely low-frequency trading, painting a clear blueprint!

December 8 (Monday): Maintain caution before the decision, liquidity remains thin. Bitcoin started the early morning at $89,123, initially rising slightly but failed to test resistance around 92,000-93,500 and retreated. Market remains cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision, liquidity is sparse! December 9-11: Expectation of rate cuts drives surge, high-level oscillations with multiple tests of key support. Driven by rising expectations of a December rate cut (market odds up to 89%), combined with a weak dollar index, prices continued upward, reaching near 94,570, with daily gains over 6%. Although there was divergence in capital flows—Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $60.48 million that day, but BlackRock IBIT net inflow of $28.76 million providing some short-term liquidity support. Prices surged twice to 94,442 and 93,557 but failed to break the prior high of 94,570, forming a clear resistance zone above 94,000 (confluence of the upper Bollinger Band and 60-day moving average), repeatedly testing the core support zone of 89,000-89,500, with the lowest at 89,291, and other lows at 89,351 and 89,429. This zone saw active on-chain spot buying, each dip quickly rebounded. On December 10, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as scheduled and announced $40 billion in bond purchases. Powell's dovish speech initially pushed Bitcoin higher briefly, but his comments about possibly halting further rate cuts sparked market concern, leading to a rapid decline from around 94,442 back to erase the day's gains. On December 11, the rate cut 'bullish signals' faded, and focus shifted to economic uncertainty. Bitcoin accelerated its decline, briefly falling below 90,000, and after dropping from highs near 89,351, traded sideways within 89,500-90,500 until the next day. December 12 (Friday): Rebounded to about 93,535 but again retreated. Market sentiment eased slightly, with Bitcoin up 2.37% that day. Mostly technical rebounds lacking new catalysts. Price failed to sustain momentum above support levels, oscillated back down near 89,429 before stabilizing above 90,000.

Macroeconomic Policy Dominates Short-term Sentiment: The implementation of the Fed rate cut and Powell’s speeches are key variables. The expected 25-basis-point cut initially boosted prices, but hints of stopping further cuts caused profit-taking, leading to retreat. The dollar index has fallen for three consecutive weeks (down 0.63% this week), providing overall liquidity support for Bitcoin, but not offsetting the negative impact of changing policy expectations. Divergent capital flows are evident: Bitcoin ETF funds saw a net outflow of $60.48 million on December 8, with products like GBTC and FBTC bleeding funds, while IBIT maintained net inflow, indicating increased institutional disagreement about the future. Leverage trading was intense; during three tests of support levels, short-term dip-buying and profit-taking alternated, culminating in short positions being liquidated en masse, exacerbating volatility.

Technical Analysis: Key price levels dominate movement. Support at 89,000-89,500 USD remains the core defense for bulls, with on-chain data showing sustained spot buy support within this range; the three dips confirmed the support’s validity. Resistance at 94,000-94,500 USD forms a strong zone, compounded by trapped longs and technical resistance, preventing effective breakthroughs and creating a short-term upward barrier. Ethereum’s network efficiency gains from the Fusaka upgrade, along with dense buy zones around 3,150 USD and 2,800 USD, provide structural support, avoiding a continuous crash. However, resistance above 3,400 USD and prior trapped positions limit upward potential, creating a “resistance above, support below” oscillation pattern.

Summary and Outlook (Bitcoin and Ethereum): Core characteristics this week—Bitcoin: First, clear range-bound movement around 89,291-94,570 USD, with support and resistance at key levels (89000, 94000). Second, bulls and bears fought intensely, influenced by macro news and capital flows, with liquidation data reflecting short-term speculative leverage. Third, weak trend strength, with no sustained upward or downward momentum, prices oscillated within the zone without clear direction. Ethereum: Volatility was intense, rising from 2,940 to 3,447 before falling back near 3,045, with a weekly range over 17%, showing fierce bulls and bears. Capital and policy influence was tight; ETF inflows and Federal Reserve expectations directly dictated short-term moves. Whale activity was a key disruptive factor. Key levels—resistance above 3,400 USD is strong, support gradually forming between 3,000-3,150 USD.

Future Key Focus: Bitcoin—Short-term support centers on the 90,000 level. If broken, further test of 89,000-89,500 USD support is likely, with a potential drop to the previous strong support near 86,000 USD. Resistance remains at 93,500-94,500 USD, requiring increased volume and capital inflows for effective breakout. Currently, the market lacks new bullish catalysts; future attention should be on inflation data, institutional capital flows (e.g., ETF), and policies of other central banks (such as the Bank of Japan). If macro easing resumes or ETF funds flow back, prices may rebound; if regulatory pressures intensify or macro data underperform, risks of correction increase. Ethereum—Short-term support focuses on the 3,000 USD level and the previous low around 2,940 USD. If these are breached, the next support zone is around 2,800 USD (on-chain dense cost area). Resistance remains in the 3,400-3,447 USD range; sustained ETF inflows or macro easing expectations are needed for a breakout. Key factors to watch include the Fed’s future policy stance, ETF capital flows, whale holdings, and regulatory developments. These factors will directly influence the short-term trend, with any approval updates potentially becoming major price drivers independent of BTC movements.