September 5 Crypto Daily encryption Daily Report

1. Market Sentiment: Long and Short Game in a Neutral Pattern

The current encryption market's fear and greed index is fixed at 47, situated in a neutral range, distinctly characterized by a "short-term cautious observation, yet long-term confidence remains". The tug-of-war between bulls and bears primarily revolves around two core factors: on one hand, expectations of weak U.S. non-farm data are rising, driving the probability of a Fed rate cut in September up to 99.3%, with macro-level positive signals injecting potential support into the market; on the other hand, the recent volatility of altcoins has intensified, coupled with the Nasdaq's increased scrutiny of companies related to encryption treasury, leading some investors to worry about short-term risks, resulting in a temporary balance of forces between bulls and bears.

2. Market Overview: Major cryptocurrencies slightly adjusted, non-farm data becomes a key variable.

After the initial fluctuations, mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced a slight pullback today, with the core driving force stemming from the market's digestion of multiple complex signals:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Currently reported at approximately $110,982.61, down 0.75% in the last 24 hours;

• Ethereum (ETH): Currently quoted at approximately $4,299.36, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%.

In the short term, the market focus is highly concentrated on the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight—this data will directly affect the clarity of the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cut path, thereby influencing the trends in the encryption market; at the same time, the upgrade of Nasdaq's scrutiny of the encryption field has also somewhat suppressed short-term market sentiment, leading to a temporary lack of upward momentum for mainstream coins.

3. On-chain Focus: Ethereum sees a significant movement of 390 million USD, indicating a clear signal of institutional reallocation.

In the past 24 hours, the activity level of funds on the Ethereum chain has significantly increased, with over $390 million in large fund movements attracting market attention, particularly evident in the signs of rebalancing at the institutional level:

• Asset management giant BlackRock transferred 33,884 ETH to the trading platform, valued at approximately $148.6 million at current prices;

• Bitwise, an investment firm, withdrew 38,709 ETH from the trading platform, amounting to approximately $167.2 million.

• In addition, multiple newly created wallet addresses have withdrawn nearly 100 million USD worth of ETH.

Intensive on-chain capital movements reflect that top institutions are adjusting their positions and investment strategies based on market changes. The intensity of on-chain capital speculation has further intensified, and it is necessary to continuously pay attention to the guiding role of institutional trends on the market.

4. Institutional Trends: ETF funds continue to flow out, and mainstream cryptocurrencies are under significant pressure.

According to the latest data from SoSoValue, on September 4th, the US encryption spot ETF market showed a net outflow trend, directly creating selling pressure on mainstream cryptocurrencies:

• The total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $227 million, with Ark Invest's ARKB seeing a single-day outflow of up to $125 million, becoming the main channel of outflow;

• The Ethereum spot ETF also showed weak performance, with a total net outflow of $167 million, and has maintained a net outflow status for 4 consecutive trading days.

The continuous withdrawal of ETF funds has put significant pressure on mainstream cryptocurrencies at critical price levels, making it difficult to form an effective upward breakout in the short term. The market is likely to maintain a pattern of consolidation and fluctuation.

5. Regulation and Macro: Global regulatory tightening combined with the approaching non-farm payrolls, increasing volatility risks.

regulatory aspect

Recently, global encryption sector regulatory policies have tightened simultaneously, and the industry's compliance threshold has further increased:

• South Korea has officially issued its first specialized guidelines in the field of virtual asset lending, clearly banning excessive leverage operations and cash lending activities, aimed at curbing market speculation and preventing systemic risks;

• The UK Treasury is drafting new anti-money laundering regulations, aiming to further strengthen the regulation of encryption asset transactions; Japan, on the other hand, has proposed incorporating cryptocurrency into the securities regulatory framework to enhance the regulation and guidance of the encryption market.

On a macro level, with the non-farm payroll data soon to be released and the global regulatory environment tightening, the volatility risk in the encryption market will significantly increase in the short term. Investors need to prepare for risk control and be cautious in their layout.

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