On January 20th, Jinshi Data, the economic team of DBS Bank, said that recent wage and inflation data support the Central Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike this week. November’s basic wages were close to the 3% threshold needed to maintain a 2% inflation rate. November’s CPI, core CPI, and core-core CPI all exceeded 2%, and are expected to continue to rise. They added that, following encouraging feedback, the Governor of the Bank of Japan and a Deputy Governor expressed confidence in wage prospects. Market hopes for a rate hike boosted the yen, with the USD/JPY falling from 158 to 155 in the past week. If the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates, the USD/JPY may be pushed back to 160. The Bank of Japan may try to avoid communication mistakes that could cause yen volatility.
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