Metrics Ventures Market Watch: Crypto Market Midline Loading to 85% Progress

Crypto Market Secondary Fund Metrics Ventures Market Watch

1/ BTC Exceeded $40,000, and our previous expectations have been met. BTC and ETH enter a bull market structure at the chip level, and it can be judged that a new bull cycle has started.

2/ There will definitely be adjustments, cleans, profits, floating chips and high leverage. The goal is to have a replacement cost of more than $30,000. A reasonable pullback is around $35,000.

3/ The key timing points of the larger correction are the ETF decision in January, the halving in April, and the possible passage of ETFs in June. Especially in January, regardless of the ETF outcome, the market is likely to fall.

4/ The real bull market won’t start until after the April halving and the June ETF decision. We should be watching for the pullback window relayout at the end of December. **

This article is MVC’s commentary on the trend of the crypto asset market in December

In MVC’s November monthly report, we believe that BTC breaking 3 is 4, and with BTC breaking through $40,000, the expectation has been realized, ETH has stood at the bull and bear dividing line of last week’s MA 120, BTC and ETH have all entered the bull market structure at the chip level, and we can consider that a new bull market cycle has begun.

For positions that have already been bought in cash below $BTC $28,000 and ETH below $1,700 and intend to hold them for the long term, I would suggest that you can move this part of your position to a cold wallet now, choose to close your eyes, and wait until 2025 to reverse the trade.

As for the question that everybody is most concerned about right now, is there still a pullback, and when? I don’t think that’s a proper question, there will be a pullback, but the real question is, when a 20-30% pullback comes, do you dare to bet full?

The early stage of the development of the market must be tortuous and meandering, we believe that from the beginning of October to the present, the monthly level of the midline market has been loaded to 85% of the progress, BTC and ETH are very obviously entering the trend of accelerating the sprint, it is not too important to accelerate to what price the acceleration sprint, the tail 20% acceleration can rush up to $45000 is no problem, and it is not surprising that it can’t rush up to 42000 and suddenly fold its wings, and it makes no sense to predict this particularly specific top.

As for the adjustment, there will be an adjustment, the market is already boiling, BitMEX funding and premium are close to the peak of sentiment, from the perspective of the chip profit ratio, the current on-chain BTC profit level has been close to July and October 20, and the short-term profit plate is already high, so we need to clearly understand that there will be an adjustment, and we must also recognize what the main purpose of this adjustment is,** The main purpose of the future adjustment is to clean up the profit float and high leverage, and further accumulate the chips before the bull market main wave comes. **

From the perspective of the timing of the adjustment of expectations, we believe that there are only three time nodes to focus on in the next six months, **one is the passage node of BTC ETF in mid-January, the second is the halving of around April, and the third is the passage of BTC ETF around June. **Purely from the dimension of time, if the ETF passes in January, then the expected landing, there will be a larger callback to cash, if the ETF continues to delay in January, the expectation will be disappointed, and it will trigger a profit-taking flight, and the end is still a pullback,**So purely from the point of view of January this node, whether the ETF is too or not, we believe that the market must fall. **

If you look a little further ahead, when the ETF results appear in January, the market correction will be cashed in, and it will slowly climb to the halving, and then the second systematic adjustment will be ushered in in June, based on the premise that we believe that the ETF will pass, then there is a high probability that June will be the final node, and then there will be a chance to get on the bus before the last bull market starts in June. However, June is too far away, and we still need to pay more attention to the pullback window after the acceleration of the mid-line market at the end of December, which is also the most important layout window. **

From the point of view of the target space of adjustment, the main cost of long-term chips on the chain is concentrated in the 28000-30000 line, and the current price has been far away from the main cost area, so the callback is likely to complete the repair of the long-term cost through the escape of the profit disk, and the nature of the callback is close to 3-12 in 2020, which is the washing of the initial profit of the bull and the cleaning of leverage, so that the long-term cost of the chips is precipitated above 30000. Therefore, the most extreme pullback space is to step back on the weekly WMA of about $120 and $32,000 (you have to wake up laughing when you dream), **A reasonable pullback position is about $35,000,**Here is also the cost range of all the chips chasing after the breakout of the BTC fake news.

Looking back on the market for more than two months since October, many people’s biggest feeling is that the market seems to lack a particularly clear absolute main line, and the tokens that rebounded more in the market at the beginning of November are mainly based on the logic of the chip structure, and many tokens have fallen violently and smoothly at the end of 2022 due to the collapse of FTX, forming a huge chip vacuum, such as matic, etc., and this rebound is to regain the chip vacuum range at the end of 22. Many tokens have completed 10 months of sideways accumulation, such as sol/link/dydx, etc., and the bottom is very solid, or new coins that have just been listed on the big exchanges, such as TIA/PYTH, etc. Many investors who have experienced the cycle at this stage often feel that they are in a state of rushing and rushing, and there seems to be nothing really new, which is also in line with the characteristics of the bottom rebound theme rotation.

However, in mid-to-late November, market funds found three themes that can be called the main line in the rush, namely BTC ecology represented by ordi, games and AI, and these three themes began to take shape as the background of the main track.

Although many tokens have risen hugely, we believe that these three themes are still early, and they are still in a relatively chaotic state. The current market hype for this kind of theme is more like meme logic, different IQ groups like to hype meme with different themes, iq10 and iq150 hype ordi (can also be counted DePin), iq100 hype AI, iq50 hype games, and even many elites with hedge fund backgrounds stick to Perp Dex and old DeFi according to the calculator. Chinese fried inscriptions, European and American fried POW and Sol ecology, Korean chong lunc, each with its own meme (no offense, I think I belong to the IQ 50 group).

Thousands of words into a sentence of ‘still early’, let us first enjoy the joy of accelerating the waves, now how to rise and fall is the initial stage of the bull’s chips, a lot of opportunities are still behind, wait for January-February, let us carefully net to catch big fish. As for the complex impact of macro, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. stock market, we have repeatedly emphasized since January 2023 that these are not important and are not the main contradictions. **

About Us

Metrics Ventures is a data- and research-driven secondary market liquidity fund for crypto assets, led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team has expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, and plays an active role in the development of the industry through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC cooperates with senior influencers in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment capabilities for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, economic model consulting capabilities, etc.

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