Master Chen 12.4 day change

Master chats about hot spots:

Last week, the United States released the PCE inflation data for November, which showed that the core PCE was 3.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations, down from the previous value of 3.7%, and the broad PCE inflation was 3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.4%. In addition, the U.S. job market continues to cool, with the number of continuing jobless claims hitting a two-year high, and the number of initial jobless claims also rose last week.

Both of these data are certainly good for the risk market, after all, they are good for future interest rate cuts. Judging from the latest forecast data of CME, the probability of December and January remains unchanged, and the probability of a rate cut in March has increased by a few points compared with before, and is now infinitely close to 50%, in other words, it is very likely to cut interest rates in March next year.

Although last week, San Francisco Fed President Daly once again dispelled everyone’s expectations for a rate cut, saying that the Fed is not considering a rate cut at this time. However, I think the language is misleading, let’s just look at the CME forecast data, in short, the Fed will have to cut interest rates as soon as March and May at the latest, and there is a high probability that it will be cut by more than 100 basis points next year, so we can continue to look forward to it.

Then moving on to ETFs, there was still no news from the SEC last week, but various institutions and Bloomberg were full of confidence, and the CEO of CB continued to express optimism about the approval of spot BTC ETFs. ETF analysts at Bloomberg have once again pinned their predictions on the timing of ETF passes, believing that spot ETFs will be approved between January 5 and 10, 2024.

Grayscale has hired an ETF executive from Prospect Shun as managing director, meaning that Grayscale continues to prepare for the approval of the ETF. In addition, Fidelity has also submitted a ETH spot ETF application to the SEC, which is the reason for the strength of the ETH, and if I remember correctly, most of the institutions that applied for BTC spot ETF have joined the ETH battle.

This also shows that in the eyes of institutions, cryptocurrencies are only BTC, ETH and others, and ETH spot ETFs are likely to pass next year, which ETH equivalent to completing BTC seven years in only one year.

In addition, MicroStrategy increased its position again last week, spending $593 million to buy BTC, and it also plans to raise $750 million through the sale of common stock, and the current average cost of MicroStrategy is $30,525, with a position of 174,530 BTC and a total profit of $1.221 billion.

I believe that the micro-strategy should be very good for financing in this market, and behind the micro-strategy are the two giants of BlackRock and Fidelity, which together hold 20% of the shares of the micro-strategy, so it is reasonable to increase its position this time, which also means that the BTC spot ETF is getting closer and closer to us.

Master looks at the trend:

December will not disappoint, today at 6 o’clock in the morning, the market once again stood on the $40,000 mark, two years of bear market, today finally in exchange for such a prosperous scene, all this is worth it, in the middle of the year I said that the end of the year market will come.

After the market broke through the 38,000 strong resistance and stood above the 40,000 mark, the big resistance above is around 45,000, in fact, from now on to 45,000 here is resistance, but the market is still in an upward trend, so don’t worry too much for the time being, but also do a good job of necessary risk control.

12.4 Master short-term pre-embedded order

Suggested BTC actions:

Around 39800-40100 more defensive 300 target 40800-41200

ETH Suggestions:

Around 2180-2200 more defensive 20 target 2230-2250

Source: Golden Finance