Polymarket’s Claude Mythos model: the April release probability drops to 28%, and the June release probability rises to 53%

Gate News, April 4: Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of “Claude Mythos model released in April” has plummeted to 28%, with a drop of 26% over the past 7 days, and the amount staked is about $42,000. The probability of “Claude Mythos model released in June” has risen to 53%, with the amount staked at about $11,600.

The contract rules for this prediction market are as follows: if Anthropic releases “Claude Mythos” or confirms the same model as that mentioned in the leaked information, and that model is made available to the public on the specified date (US Eastern Time), the outcome is determined as “Yes.” The qualifying model must be named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, etc.), or it must confirm that it is the same model as the one mentioned by Anthropic in the leaked information. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar, are not counted toward the determination unless it is confirmed to be the same model as mentioned in the leaked information. In addition, the qualifying model must be launched and publicly available, including through open testing or open rolling waitlist sign-ups; closed testing or private access does not qualify.

Previously, Anthropic announced that it would prohibit users from subscribing to “free-loading” (white pickings). To use Claude with OpenClaw, you need to pay based on usage or use the API.