Gate News Report, March 18 — As the cryptocurrency market recently rebounded, on-chain fund movements for Bitcoin have shown significant changes. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that on March 16, the hourly inflow of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges reached about 6,100 coins, the highest since February 20, with large transfers accounting for up to 63%, the highest since October 2025.
This data is often seen as a potential sell pressure signal. Market participants tend to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges for selling or converting into stable assets, so large inflows in a short period usually indicate some funds are preparing to take profits. Historical trends show that such situations often coincide with price resistance phases.
In terms of price, Bitcoin has risen about 12% this month and briefly hit around $76,000 on March 17, marking a six-week high. However, attempts to break through the $75,000 level repeatedly failed, forming clear short-term resistance. On-chain data shows that this range corresponds to a cluster of trader costs, which typically act as a pressure zone during weak cycles.
On a macro level, U.S. interest rate policies remain a key factor influencing market sentiment. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged this month, with related interest rate futures indicating a nearly 99% probability. However, amid inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, expectations for rate cuts within the year are cooling, which could constrain risk assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Additionally, the on-chain “realized price” indicator shows that the average cost for active traders is about $84,700, a level that has historically served as a critical resistance zone. If prices continue to rise, this range may become an important test in the next phase. In the short term, the interplay between fund inflows and macro expectations has made Bitcoin’s trend more sensitive.
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