Gate News 消息，3 月 14 日，国际研究机构 Gartner 发布最新预测报告，2026 年全球人工智能总支出将达到 2.52 万亿美元，较 2025 年增长 44%。报告指出，AI 正经历根本性转变，呈现「双速发展」特征：基础模型层趋于成熟理性，应用层创新加速爆发。
Gartner 表示，生成式 AI 在 2026 年已进入技术成熟度曲线的「幻灭之谷」阶段，这是市场回归理性的必要修正而非技术失败。麻省理工学院 Project NANDA 团队研究数据显示，95% 的企业生成式 AI 试点项目未能交付可衡量的商业价值，反映出落地应用面临严峻挑战。
企业采购策略正转向务实路线，更倾向于从现有软件供应商获取嵌入式 AI 能力，标志着 AI 正成为企业软件的标准配置。尽管采购趋于冷静，AI 基础设施投资仍保持强劲，报告显示 2026 年 AI 基础设施支出将达 1.36 万亿美元，较 2025 年增长约 49%。
应用层面，Gartner 预测到 2028 年企业使用的生成式 AI 模型中超过半数将为特定领域模型，2026 年已显现强劲增长动能。代理式 AI 成为 2026 年核心技术趋势，与传统生成式 AI 不同，AI 智能体可自主决策、规划并执行任务。例如在云成本优化场景中，AI 智能体可持续监控、自动调优，将成本优化从「事后可见」升级为「持续执行」，多代理系统进一步放大这一能力。
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