Ethereum approaches $2,500 resistance amid weakening derivatives data and declining DApp activity

March 6 News: Ethereum’s recent rebound momentum has significantly slowed. After briefly touching $2,200, it has fallen back about 6%. As tensions in the Middle East persist and the US stock market weakens, risk aversion has increased, putting pressure on risk assets overall. The rising macro uncertainty also makes it more difficult for Ethereum to reach $2,500.

Derivatives market data shows that long leverage demand remains insufficient. The 30-day Ethereum futures annualized premium is currently below 5%, which is considered a neutral zone and often signals weak risk appetite among professional traders. At the same time, Ethereum’s price is still about 58% below its all-time high of $4,956 set in August 2025, indicating market confidence has not fully recovered.

The options market also reflects cautious sentiment. The 30-day Ethereum options skew has recently risen to about 7%, above the neutral level, suggesting increasing demand for downside hedging. When this indicator stays above 6%, it usually indicates institutional traders are more inclined to buy put protection, giving bears some advantage.

In addition to derivatives data, on-chain activity cooling also constrains Ethereum’s price movement. Data shows that weekly decentralized exchange trading volume on Ethereum has dropped from about $20.2 billion a month ago to $12.6 billion. Meanwhile, revenue from Ethereum decentralized applications over the past seven days fell to approximately $14.1 million, down about 47% from last month. The decline in on-chain activity suggests the network’s burning mechanism is also losing momentum.

However, within the blockchain ecosystem, Ethereum still maintains a clear advantage. Industry statistics show that Ethereum and its Layer 2 scaling networks together account for about 65% of the total value locked (TVL) across blockchains. The locked value on the Ethereum mainnet alone has reached approximately $55.4 billion, while other major competitors still lag significantly behind. This indicates institutional funds continue to favor the Ethereum ecosystem when choosing decentralized infrastructure.

Market analysts believe that the current weakening in derivatives indicators and on-chain data does not necessarily mean Ethereum will experience a deep correction. If the price can regain the $2,400 level, market sentiment could quickly recover and set the stage for further gains. However, given the macro environment has not shown clear signs of improvement, Ethereum’s short-term trend remains highly correlated with global risk appetite.