Author: Chain Research Society
Is 2028 the Diamond Bottom for BTC?
2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.
1. A drop without reason is the deepest fear
In 2018, a 73% decline was due to the ICO bubble bursting, with many altcoins collapsing to zero. In 2022, a 77% drop was caused by Luna’s collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX’s bankruptcy. Every crash, you know the cause.
Each time, you know where the enemy is and how long it takes to rebuild trust. But what about 2026?
• No exchange failures
• No algorithmic stablecoin collapses
• No hacking attacks
• No country banning BTC
It just fell. Fortune magazine said: the worst start to the year in history, but without a clear catalyst for the crash.
A crash with a reason usually leads to a rebound after the negative sentiment is exhausted; but a reasonless fall feels like slow bleeding. When everyone is asking why it’s falling but can’t find an answer, panic exponentially amplifies.
2. Have the bottom-fishing indicators finally appeared?
Currently, quantitative market indicators show that the market has entered a vacuum zone of irrational selling.
According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model’s current signal is only 1/5, far from the true bottom (data source: fuckbtc).
❌ MVRV < 1.0
❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average
❌ Price
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Rebounds Without Increase in Open Interest, May Still Be Range-Bound
On March 19, when Bitcoin's price declined, open interest (OI) rose instead, showing that short positions increased, with price touching around $68,750. The current rebound lacks new long position support and appears more like range-bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to changes in price and OI.
GateNews1m ago
Over the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $311 million, with long positions accounting for 64% of liquidations.
On March 20, Gate News reported that across the entire network over the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $311 million, with long positions liquidated for $200 million and short positions liquidated for $111 million. Both long and short positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced varying degrees of liquidation, with 103,431 people globally liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred on the XYZ:GOLD-USD trading pair, valued at $3.675 million.
GateNews41m ago
BTC Breaks Through $72,000, Mainstream CEX Cumulative Short Liquidation Intensity to Reach $590 Million
According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, short liquidations on mainstream CEX will reach $590 million; if it falls below $70,000, long liquidations will reach $275 million. The liquidation chart reflects the intensity of market impact, not the precise number of liquidation contracts.
GateNews1h ago
BTC breaks through $71,000, 24-hour gain of 1.23%
Gate News, on March 20, according to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is now trading at $71006.6, with a 24-hour increase of 1.23%.
GateNews1h ago
BTC Breaks Through 71,000 USDT
Gate News bot message: Gate market data shows BTC has broken through 71,000 USDT, with the current price at 71,006.6 USDT.
CryptoRadar1h ago
