ChainCatcher reports that, according to The Block, on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant indicates that the “ultimate” bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take several months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.
Analysis shows that Bitcoin’s realized price has historically served as a major support level during past bear markets, and the current price remains more than 25% above that level. Although Bitcoin dropped to $62,000 with a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion—reaching a new high since March 2023—the structural bottom has not yet been reached. The total realized losses (measured in BTC) are still well below the levels seen at the end of previous bear markets: currently 3 million BTC versus 11 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.
Several key valuation metrics also have not entered historically capitulative zones: the MVRV ratio has not hit extreme undervaluation; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of approximately 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently at breakeven or slightly profitable, whereas at previous bear market bottoms they typically endured 30%-40% losses. About 55% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, while cycle lows usually occur at 45%-50%. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator remains in the “bear market” phase rather than the “extreme bear market” phase, which historically lasts several months and signals that prices are beginning to bottom out.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin at $68K triggers nearly $400M in crypto liquidations.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just below the $69,000 mark as traders braced for a pivotal weekly candle close, with prices hovering near the long-term line around $68,300. After a weekend slide, the setup underscores a tug-of-war between a fragile near-term outlook and the possibility of a contrarian move, e
CryptoBreaking1h ago
JPMorgan Moves to Accept Bitcoin, Ether as Loan Collateral
JPMorgan Chase now allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans, using third-party custodians to manage risks. This integration of crypto into credit systems highlights a shift toward digital assets in traditional finance, despite challenges posed by volatility.
CryptoFrontNews2h ago
Bitcoin Price Recovery Paints Familiar Pattern—And That’s the Problem: Analysis
In brief
Bitcoin climbed above $71,000 today, offering bulls their first glimpse of relief since February's collapse.
At the same time, the price move has formed the same compressive wedge pattern that preceded Bitcoin crashes in October 2025 and January 2026.
On Myriad, traders are
Decrypt2h ago
