While the market remains immersed in a pessimistic atmosphere, with Bitcoin retreating nearly 40% from its October high last year, on-chain data has captured a powerful countercurrent from the deep sea. Over the past week, large whales have bought approximately 53,000 Bitcoin against the trend, totaling over $4 billion. Meanwhile, the “hot capital share” indicator has fallen below a key support level, signaling a complete clearing of the speculative bubble. Is this battle of chips between big players and retail investors a sign of a strong bottoming process, or merely a temporary stopgap to prevent a crash?
Whale Accumulation Against the Trend, Over $4 Billion Invested in a Week
According to Glassnode data, wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin, known as “whales,” have ended months of reduction and accumulated about 53,000 Bitcoin in the past week. This strong buying force played a crucial support role when Bitcoin tested the $60,000 level, successfully preventing further price decline. This is the largest single-week accumulation since November last year. Analysts point out that this buy-up led by large holders, while stabilizing market confidence in the short term, may not be enough to push prices back to all-time highs without broader capital follow-through, as it relies solely on existing funds.
Hot Capital Share Falls Below Lower Boundary, Signaling Significant Decline of the Speculative Bubble
Examining the latest Hot Capital Share chart, the indicator has fallen below the critical zone marked by the red dashed line, with a value dropping to 33.59. This technical signal clearly indicates that short-term speculative capital is accelerating its exit, showing signs of retail investor capitulation. The downward trend of the blue line suggests the market is undergoing a thorough chip cleansing, with floating chips significantly reduced. As hot money recedes, the market structure shifts toward a “cooling period” dominated by long-term holders, implying that short-term price volatility risks will decrease substantially, but also that the momentum driving rapid surges has temporarily faded.
Lack of Incremental Capital Support, Macro Catalysts Needed for Future
Despite large holders actively defending the market, the challenge remains: “Who will take over?” Many investors entering via ETFs are currently at a loss and reluctant to add positions; publicly listed companies that previously incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets have also slowed their purchases due to stock price pressures. The current market rebound lacks broad participation, and relying solely on whale defensive buying is unlikely to sustain a continuous upward trend. Investors should closely monitor Federal Reserve policies or new regulatory developments. Only with new macro liquidity injections can ETF funds be reactivated, breaking the current price deadlock.
This article, “Whale Returns? Strong Weekly Accumulation of 53,000 BTC, Bitcoin Chip Battles in the Wake of Hot Money Retreat,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
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