New Model Flags Solana as Deeply Undervalued at $87: SOL Price Analysis

• Solana trades 44.6% below its $156 fair value, with power-law models showing strong undervaluation.
• RSI at 28.25 signals oversold conditions, though bearish MACD confirms downtrend remains in effect.
• Model forecasts 51% return potential over one year, but wide confidence intervals reflect uncertainty.

Solana trades just around $87, representing a 44.6% discount to its calculated fair value of $156. Analyst Marty Party shared David Eng’s detailed valuation update, revealing a $70 gap between spot and model prices.

The power-law model assigns SOL a Z-score of -0.65, placing it in oversold territory. This analysis comes as the token faces sustained downward pressure across major exchanges.

Power-Law Model Shows Material Undervaluation

The valuation framework demonstrates a power-law fit with an R² of 0.6792. This means the long-term trend explains roughly 68% of historical price movements.

Solana Valuation – Feb 9 update by @david_eng_mba

• Spot price: $87
• Power-law fair value: $156
• Gap: -$70
• Discount to fair value: -44.6%
• Z-score: -0.65 (oversold)

Model fit (R²) and robustness

• Power-law fit: R² = 0.6792

  • Interpretation: the long-run trend… pic.twitter.com/sbZpbiu8rx

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) February 9, 2026

However, the model reveals parameter instability, with rolling slopes ranging from -3.245 to 5.807 across different periods. Block bootstrap testing indicates robust directional signals despite data dependencies.

The mean-reversion half-life sits at 133 days under current conditions. Model projections suggest a drift path reaching approximately $135 within that timeframe.

At 266 days, the snap-back trajectory points toward $166. The maturity-adjusted forecast offers a 51% expected return over one year, though confidence intervals remain wide.

Solana Technical Analysis Confirms Oversold Territory

At press time, Solana trades at $84.48, down 2.64% on the daily chart. The price dropped sharply from $140 to its current levels with minimal consolidation.

Immediate support appears near $80, where recent wicks tested buyer strength. Resistance clusters around $100, marking previous consolidation zones.

The Relative Strength Index registers 28.25, well below the oversold threshold of 30. This reading suggests potential short-term buying interest could emerge.

The 14-day RSI moving average sits at 29.85, reinforcing the oversold condition. Strong selling pressure continues to dominate despite these technical signals.

Solana remains oversold with bearish momentum, Source: TradingView

SOL MACD Signals Persistent Bearish Momentum

The MACD line rests at -12.37, positioned below the signal line at -10.47. This configuration confirms ongoing bearish momentum across the asset.

The histogram shows a slight increase toward zero at -1.89, hinting at slower selling pressure. Yet trend reversal requires a confirmed MACD crossover above the signal line.

Price action must break above $90 to $95 for meaningful bullish confirmation.

Key psychological levels include $75 as support and $120 as upper resistance. The overall trend remains bearish until technical indicators flip positive. Further declines become probable if support at $80 fails to hold.

Model Robustness and Forecast Limitations

The analysis incorporates rolling parameter stability tests and block bootstrap validation. Predictive correlation shows a mean of approximately -0.807 with a 95% confidence interval.

This suggests oversold conditions tend to precede outperformance in resampled scenarios. However, residual autocorrelation at 0.997 indicates highly persistent deviations from trend.

The maturity-adjusted forecast carries an R² of 0.8415, improving 31.2 percentage points over simpler models. Independent long-horizon samples remain limited to roughly four non-overlapping annual periods.

This constraint reduces magnitude precision even as directional signals appear strong. The 95% prediction interval spans from -66% to +574%, reflecting substantial uncertainty.

Hence, Eng’s analysis positions Solana materially below the trend with positive skew and high variance. Besides, the directional mean-reversion signal demonstrates reasonable robustness through dependent-data testing.

Point forecast magnitudes remain less reliable given limited sample depth and regime sensitivity.