XRP’s ongoing pullback is sparking discussions about “history repeating itself” in the market. Several technical analysts point out that the current pattern closely resembles the ABC correction structure in the 2021 cycle, which may provide important clues about when this round of decline will end.
Looking back at the trend, XRP fell about 35% in Q4 2025, then briefly rebounded in early 2026, quickly rising from $1.84 in early January to a high of $2.41, but was soon met with strong resistance and pulled back. Since that high, the price has retraced approximately 41%, currently hovering around $1.42, hitting a new low since November 2024. The decline has entered its fifth month, and market sentiment is becoming more cautious.
On the technical side, analyst Charting Guy notes that XRP has been trading above a long-term upward trendline since 2020, which has provided dynamic support during deep corrections multiple times. The current price is approaching this zone, where the trendline overlaps with the $1.05 to $1.1 range. He believes XRP may further decline and test around $1.2 before March 2026, forming a phase bottom.
This judgment is also supported by historical comparison. In 2021, after a high, XRP experienced several months of decline, eventually stabilizing near the key trendline at the end of wave C, and began a slow recovery cycle. The current price structure and timing are quite similar to that period, suggesting this correction may be nearing its end.
It’s important to note that if XRP drops to $1.2, it would fall about 16% from the current price, increasing the year-to-date decline to over 34%. However, if the bulls manage to hold the long-term trendline, the market could see a technical rebound. For investors, this price level is becoming an important window to observe for a trend reversal.
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