Solana (SOL) unstaking volume surges by 150% — Increased liquidity supply raises the possibility of the price dropping to $65?

Solana (SOL) enters February with clear downside pressure: the price has fallen nearly 30% over the past 30 days and continues to fluctuate within a weakening downward channel. As long-term holder confidence dims, the price keeps sliding toward the lower boundary of this structure.

On the on-chain data side, the picture is also less optimistic: net staking has plummeted, buying activity on exchanges has slowed, while short-term traders are increasing their participation. All signals combined indicate that the “potential sell” SOL volume is rising at a time when technical support becomes more fragile.

Sharp decline in staking, increased risk of channel breakdown

Solana’s weakening trend is reinforced by a significant drop in staking activity. The Solana Staking Differential Index measures the weekly net change in SOL locked in native staking: positive values reflect new staking, while negative values indicate net unstaking.

At the end of November, long-term sentiment remained positive. In the week ending November 24, staking saw a net inflow of over 6.34 million SOL, indicating a strong accumulation phase.

However, this trend has completely reversed. By mid-January, weekly staking flows turned negative. The week ending January 19 recorded a net unstaking of about –449,819 SOL; by the week ending February 2, the figure worsened to –1,155,788 SOL—an increase of approximately 150% in unstaking volume within just two weeks.

Source: DuneThis means more SOL is being unlocked and re-entering circulation. Once unstaked, tokens can be transferred to exchanges and sold immediately, increasing the risk of price decline.

This development occurs right as SOL trades near the lower edge of the downward channel, making a breakdown scenario of an additional ~30% decline particularly noteworthy.

Solana price structure decreasing | Source: TradingViewAt around $96, the combination of technical weakness and increasing liquidity supply creates a risky environment: if selling accelerates, the support zone of the channel may not hold.

Buying activity on exchanges stalls, while speculation resumes

The weakening staking trend is reflected in exchange inflows. The Net Position Change Index on exchanges tracks the net SOL entering or leaving exchanges over 30 days: negative values typically suggest net outflows (accumulation), while narrowing negatives indicate decreasing buying demand.

On February 1, the index was around –2.25 million SOL (implying strong accumulation pressure). By February 3, the index weakened to about –1.66 million SOL. In just two days, net outflows decreased by nearly 26%, indicating a slowdown in accumulation.

Outflows from exchanges are slowing down: GlassnodeMore concerning, the weakening buying pressure coincides with a sharp increase in unstaking—meaning more SOL is becoming available for trading. When supply increases while demand decreases, prices tend to be more vulnerable to rapid and deep declines.

Meanwhile, speculative activity is heating up again. HODL Waves data shows the holding group of 1 day to 1 week increased its share from 3.51% to 5.06% during 2/2–2/3. This group typically participates during high volatility and tends to quickly cash out.

Speculative trading groups | Source: GlassnodeA similar pattern appeared at the end of January: on January 27, this group accounted for 5.26% when SOL was around $127; by January 30, their share dropped to 4.31% as the price fell to $117 (an almost 8% decrease). This suggests short-term funds are “timing the market” more than accumulating, which could make rebounds less sustainable.

Key technical levels: risk of retreating to $65

From a technical perspective, SOL remains within a prolonged downtrend channel since November. After losing the critical support zone at $98, the price is now around $96, near the lower boundary of the channel.

If this support area is broken, the next downside target is around $67 according to Fibonacci levels. If selling pressure intensifies, the price could extend to $65, corresponding to a full breakdown scenario of approximately 30% of the channel.

Solana price analysis | Source: TradingViewOn the upside, recovery faces many challenges. The first resistance to reclaim is $98, followed by the strong resistance zone at $117—where multiple rebounds were blocked in January. Only if the price clearly breaks above $117 can the downtrend structure be neutralized.

Conclusion

As net staking declines, buying activity on exchanges weakens, and speculation increases, SOL flowing back into circulation is rising just as technical support becomes more sensitive. Without signs of long-term accumulation returning, Solana still faces the risk of deeper correction, with the $67–$65 zone being a critical area to watch.