Analysis: Bitcoin may face its first four consecutive months of decline since 2018

BTC-3,4%

Odaily Planet Daily News: Bitcoin may experience its fourth consecutive month of decline, a situation that has not occurred since the record six-month decline from 2018 to 2019. Although January still has a full trading week remaining, Bitcoin has slightly decreased this month, hovering around $87,000. Bitcoin previously recorded monthly closing declines in October, November, and December, with a significant pullback from October’s all-time high, during which Bitcoin dropped approximately 36% from its peak to trough. Even during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin’s price fell from $69,000 to $15,000, there was no more than three consecutive months of decline. However, despite the weakness in spot prices, the derivatives market shows some optimism. Deribit data indicates that the open interest for call options with a strike price of $100,000 is the highest, nearing $900 million, suggesting that a considerable number of traders are betting on a price rebound to six figures.

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BTC 15-minute drop of 0.58%: Large on-chain withdrawals and bearish derivatives sentiment coincide to weigh on the price

From 2026-04-12 22:00 to 22:15 (UTC), the BTC price fluctuated between 70693.8 and 71371.8 USDT. During this period, the candlestick return rate recorded -0.58%, and the amplitude reached 0.95%. The short-term downside caused market attention to rise rapidly, and some investors accelerated adjustments to their hedging positions. The main drivers behind this change were concentrated on-chain large-fund outflows and a short-term defensive shift in the derivatives market. On-chain data shows that net outflow transactions of large funds $100k and above totaled more than 800 BTC in aggregate from exchanges; meanwhile, the exchanges’ overall BTC holdings

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