New momentum for Solana: Retail investors return, ETF begins attracting capital

Solana (SOL) is signaling a strong recovery as the price surpasses the $146 USD level at the time of recording on Thursday, amid the emergence of positive momentum across the board, thereby reinforcing expectations of a sustainable upward trend. SOL’s rally is built on a foundation of accumulation that has lasted for several weeks, firmly staying above the important support zone of $120 USD.

The outlook for maintaining SOL’s upward trend will largely depend on the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market, which has remained steadily bullish since the beginning of the week. Simultaneously, the return of capital from retail investors along with increasing demand from institutional players are seen as key catalysts for the next phase.

Moderate ETF demand sparks Solana recovery expectations

Interest from institutions is gradually materializing through the Solana ETF fund, which saw nearly $6 million USD in inflows on Tuesday. Although the total capital remains modest, demand for US-listed spot SOL ETFs generally remains stable, indicating growing confidence among institutional investors.

According to data from SoSoValue, the total accumulated capital in Solana ETFs has reached approximately $834 million USD, with a net asset value of $1.18 billion USD. The fact that institutional capital is only beginning to flow in opens the possibility for Solana to move closer to widespread acceptance, laying the groundwork for a sustainable short- and medium-term bullish trend.

Source: SoSoValue On the other hand, the Solana derivatives market also signals positive investor sentiment. The open interest (OI) of futures contracts surged to $8.8 billion USD on Wednesday, marking the highest level since early November.

Notably, on January 1st, the open interest in Solana futures was only $7.38 billion USD. The sharp increase over a short period reflects a significant improvement in trading activity, especially among retail investors, and indicates that traders are proactively positioning themselves ahead of a potential breakout of SOL’s price in the short term.

Source: CoinGlass## Technical outlook: Solana breaks out of falling wedge pattern, targeting $200 USD

As of Thursday, Solana was trading around the $146 USD mark, showing clear signs of recovery as several key technical indicators simultaneously signal positive momentum. On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 68, reflecting strengthening bullish momentum and increasingly optimistic market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the MACD line continues to stay above the signal line, increasing expectations of a trend extension. This development encourages capital to accept higher risks in pursuit of attractive profits, especially as SOL has the potential to break out of the previously formed falling wedge pattern.

Daily SOL/USDT chart | Source: TradingView According to technical analysis theory, if the breakout scenario is confirmed, Solana could see an increase of up to approximately 44%, bringing the price close to the $200 USD zone. However, the key condition is that SOL must close firmly above the 100-day EMA at $149 USD to confirm the bullish trend.

In the short term, the next notable resistance zone is identified around the 200-day EMA at $160 USD, where profit-taking pressure may increase. Conversely, the 50-day EMA at $138 USD continues to serve as a critical support zone for Solana’s bullish outlook. If the price closes below this level, the correction wave is likely to extend toward the next important support around $120 USD.