KOSPI is expected to break through 5,000 points... The semiconductor boom is driving the securities sector to continuously raise expectations

KOSPI Composite Index(KOSPI) continues to soar in recent days, with the market even predicting that it may break through the “5,000 points” mark as early as the first quarter of this year. As the representative Korean stock index KOSPI experiences a rare single-day increase of 100 points, the securities industry has also seen a series of upward revisions of target index levels.

Yuanta Securities on January 6th raised this year’s expected fluctuation range for KOSPI from the original 3,800~4,600 points to 4,200~5,200 points. This is a significant upward adjustment compared to their forecast just two months ago, reflecting the current optimistic market sentiment. Yuanta Securities analyst Kim Long-kyu commented: “As earnings expectations for the semiconductor industry rise sharply, the upward outlook for KOSPI has also been pushed higher.”

In particular, the earnings forecasts for leading stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have surged, which is considered the background for this index adjustment. By the end of September 2025, Samsung Electronics’ expected operating profit for 2026 was only around 46.2 trillion KRW, but within just three months, this forecast has nearly doubled to 90.8 trillion KRW. During the same period, SK Hynix’s forecast also soared from 47.8 trillion KRW to 80.5 trillion KRW.

The semiconductor industry is the core sector with the highest market capitalization in Korea’s stock market, and its performance is a key factor in determining the overall direction of KOSPI. The rise in memory semiconductor prices driven by increased demand for global artificial intelligence(AI), servers, and smart devices is the main background for improved performance. In fact, the market generally believes that the semiconductor industry will officially enter a recovery phase in the first half of 2026.

If this upward trend continues, the investment psychology of asset value recovery will be strengthened, and foreign capital inflows may also expand. However, some experts warn that the sharper the index rises, the more it requires corresponding improvements in corporate performance to ensure sustainability. Because if earnings expectations are not realized, a correction cannot be ruled out.

If developments proceed as expected, the Korean stock market will reach a symbolic index of five times the level after approximately 30 years since hitting 1,000 points in 1996. If this trend ultimately leads to the achievement of 5,000 points, it is expected to not only strengthen the position of the domestic capital market but also have a positive impact on investor perception shifts and the enhancement of companies’ international competitiveness.