[Editorial] After NFT and L2, is it the turn of the "prediction market"?… 2026 Please determine the outcome based on "essence" rather than "imitation"

It is truly rare to find a place in the blockchain industry that loves the term “narrative” so much. Because compared to the substance of technology or the essence of business, people are more convinced that a compelling “story” can support prices and attract investments. At the New Year 2026, this market is once again intoxicated by another grand narrative. That is “Prediction Market(Prediction Market)”.

Watching major platforms rush to announce the launch of prediction markets, I can’t help but feel a sense of déjà vu with a bitter taste. This is exactly the same as just four months ago, when all exchanges displayed signs of “Perp DEX(Perp DEX)” for decentralized perpetual contracts. Let’s go back a little further in time. Recall the NFT(Non-Fungible Token) frenzy that shouted out prices in hundreds of millions of Korean won, and the Layer2(L2) boom that claimed to pave roads that no one would use and sprouted everywhere.

Today, what remains on those once-glorious narrative battlegrounds? Most NFTs have turned into waste paper, and the L2 chains that have become ghost towns are just consuming server costs. The DEXs that emerged like mushrooms after rain four months ago are quietly disappearing. The cost of chasing narratives is painfully high.

The failure formula of this circle is monotonous to the point of boredom. Pioneers open the way, huge capital follows suit, and then countless “imitators” swarm in. Just like after Hyperliquid’s success, everyone from cats to dogs rushed in, this year, copies mimicking Polymarket and Calzy will dominate.

It can be confidently predicted that in six months, this narrative will also become outdated. By then, new prey like “Prop Trading(Prop Trading)” will emerge, once again tempting profit-seeking migratory birds.

The problem lies in the “time gap.” When you realize the trend and rush to join, the leading companies are already far ahead. For latecomers, prediction markets are not a business of life and death, but merely a “filler” to keep up with the trend. The “Fast Follower(Fast Follower)” strategy, which lacks sincerity and copies others’ successful formulas, is now outdated. Latecomers chasing narratives will ultimately only become “fuel” that fattens the leading ecosystem and then disappears.

I dare to predict that 90% of the prediction market participants blooming everywhere will vanish without a trace in a year. Only a few with original solutions and those who have truly identified niche markets will survive.

In 2026, I advise Web3 leaders: do not chase narratives.

Trends are like waves; being swept away will lead to destruction, mastering them is full of fun, but if you keep riding others’ waves, you will forever drift with the tide. Don’t ask “What is this hot topic(Meta),” but instead ask “What is our essence?” Don’t waste your most valuable time on copying others’ stories; focus on products you truly believe in.

Roman philosopher Seneca said — “For a captain who does not know his destination, a tailwind is of no use” — like a sharp wake-up call, striking the market that is intoxicated by the illusion of narratives and stumbling forward.