CryptoQuant asserts that "the Bear Market has arrived"! Bitcoin demand momentum has cooled, and it may test $70,000.

On-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant warns that due to the significant weakening of Bitcoin demand momentum, crypto assets may have already entered a bear market, and the risk of further declines cannot be ignored.

CryptoQuant recently released a report stating: “The demand growth for Bitcoin has clearly slowed down, indicating that the market is entering a Bear Market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three waves of spot demand, driven respectively by the launch of U.S. spot ETFs, the U.S. presidential election, and Bitcoin reserve companies.”

However, starting in early October 2025, this demand growth has fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the new buying pressure in this cycle has largely been absorbed by the market, and Bitcoin has consequently lost its key support strength.

Based on the current weak situation, CryptoQuant believes that the downside risk of Bitcoin is gradually emerging, with “70,000 dollars” being the first important support zone. If the market is still unable to re-gather bullish momentum, further declines to 56,000 dollars cannot be ruled out. The report states:

Historically, the bottom of the Bitcoin Bear Market often aligns closely with the 'Realized Price' (reflecting the average cost of all holders); this indicator is currently around $56,000.

If it truly tests that price level, it means that Bitcoin has fallen about 55% from its historical high, potentially becoming the smallest pullback bear market in history.

The mid-term support level for Bitcoin is around $70,000.

Regarding the time point of market concern, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno revealed: “A pullback to $70,000 may occur within the next 3 to 6 months; as for a deeper fall to $56,000, if it really happens, it could fall in the second half of 2026.”

He further added that this wave of Bear Market actually began in mid-November of this year, which is after the largest liquidation event in the history of crypto assets on October 10.

3 Big Data Confirmations: Funds are Retreating

CryptoQuant listed 3 key data points to support the view that “the Bear Market has arrived”:

1. ETF turns into net seller: In Q4 2025, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shifted to a “net outflow” status, with holdings decreasing by approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, contrasting sharply with the strong buying during the same period last year.

2. Large Holders Refraining: The growth rate of addresses holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins (including ETFs and corporations) is below the trend line, indicating a deterioration in demand similar to the end of 2021, just before the major bear market of 2022.

3. Derivatives Cooling Off: The funding rates of perpetual contracts (calculated using the 365-day moving average) have fallen to their lowest point since December 2023. A decline in funding rates typically indicates a reduced willingness of bulls to maintain leverage, which is a typical characteristic of a Bear Market. Moreover, the coin price has fallen below the 365-day moving average, which is often viewed in technical analysis as the dividing line between bulls and bears.

CryptoQuant has put forward a disruptive viewpoint: “The core engine driving the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin is the 'demand cycle', rather than the 'halving event'.” When demand growth peaks and begins to decline, a Bear Market often follows, regardless of the dynamics on the supply side.

It is worth noting that CryptoQuant's pessimistic tone stands in stark contrast to the views of recent Wall Street giants, with a fierce battle between bullish and bearish sentiment in the market:

• Citigroup: The baseline scenario forecasts that Bitcoin will rise to $143,000 in the next 12 months, while the most optimistic scenario looks at $189,000;
• JPMorgan: Based on gold's comparative valuation, maintains the outlook for Bitcoin to reach 170,000 USD.
• Standard Chartered: Although becoming more cautious and reducing the target price of Bitcoin for 2026 by half, it still maintains it at $150,000.
• Bitwise: Firmly believes that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.

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Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide market information, and all content and opinions are for reference only. They do not constitute investment advice and do not represent the views and positions of the blockchain community. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain community will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investors' trades.
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Tags: bitcoin BTCCryptoQuant Julio Moreno analyzes the crypto assets market, coin price investment, Bitcoin Bear Market trend.