Fold Holdings has been included in the Russell 2000 Index, but the encryption treasury company faces potential exclusion risk from MSCI.

Bitcoin financial technology company Fold Holdings recently announced its official inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index, attracting widespread attention at the intersection of encryption assets and traditional Capital Market. As an important small-cap Benchmark index in the United States, inclusion in the Russell 2000 typically means higher market exposure and opportunities for passive capital allocation, which is of significant importance for Bitcoin concept stocks like Fold.

Fold Holdings (Nasdaq: FLD) claims to be the first publicly traded Bitcoin financial services company, with a treasury holding over 1,500 Bitcoins. On the business side, Fold primarily targets retail users, offering products including the Fold App, Bitcoin gift cards, debit cards, and the upcoming Bitcoin rewards credit card, distinctly separating itself from traditional Bitcoin mining companies. The company's management stated that being included in the Russell 2000 helps enhance awareness among institutional investors and drives long-term shareholder value growth.

From an index perspective, the Russell 2000 index covers approximately 2,000 small-cap publicly traded companies in the United States, accounting for about 5% to 7% of the total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market, and is widely used as a tracking benchmark for small-cap stock ETFs and mutual funds. Previously, several Bitcoin mining companies such as Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining were components of this index and achieved impressive performance in 2023. The addition of Fold means that crypto-related companies are expanding from “infrastructure-type” to “financial services-type.”

However, behind the good news also lurks structural risks. MSCI recently proposed a consultation plan to consider excluding companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of their total assets from its global benchmark index, on the grounds that such enterprises are closer to investment tools rather than traditional operating companies. If this rule is officially implemented, it could create systemic shocks for Bitcoin treasury-type companies.

The market generally believes that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is one of the most affected cases. Investment banks estimate that if it is removed by MSCI, the company may face passive fund outflows in the billions of dollars. More importantly, MSCI's decision could set a precedent for the industry, prompting other index providers to follow suit, which in turn could affect the financing model of digital asset management companies that rely on index funds.

Overall, the inclusion of Fold Holdings in the Russell 2000 reflects the Capital Market's phased recognition of Bitcoin fintech companies; however, at the same time, the adjustment of index rules for encryption asset companies by MSCI also brings uncertainty to the entire Bitcoin treasury management sector. In the future, how to strike a balance between compliance structures, asset allocation ratios, and Capital Market rules will become a core issue faced by such companies.