BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes reveals the new market norm for 2025: ETF capital stickiness breaks the old rotation rules, alt season is still here but only belongs to a few high-quality assets. (Previous summary: Arthur Hayes warns that Monad may plummet 99%: VC coins with high valuations and low circulation) (Background Info: Monad officially launched! $MON opening coin price performance, token economics, Coinbase public sale results… all compiled)

Table of Contents

• The spot ETF has built high walls, and funds can no longer penetrate at will.
• Selective Bull Market: The Victory of Elite Assets
• 2026 Outlook: Market Logic Enters the Era of Stock Pickers

Bitcoin has震盪下跌 for the past two months from $126,000, and the alt season index has continued to decline. Many retail investors are struggling with whether to sell their altcoins. In response, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes revealed in a recent interview:

If you're still asking where the alt season is, it's because you haven't bought those that are rising. Traders feel the absence of a bull market because they are still using the old script from 2021, clinging to the broken scraps from the last cycle.

Hayes stated that the past standard script was for BTC to lead, ETH to follow, and finally funds to overflow into high-risk altcoins.

However, the market situation in 2025 completely diverged from this trend. According to on-chain transaction data, established altcoins like XRP and ADA, which were extremely popular in 2021, remained stagnant despite Bitcoin reaching new highs repeatedly. The market indicates that institutional funds are refusing to distribute evenly, and the rotation rules are no longer simply driven by sentiment, but are locked onto a few targets by precise risk control models.

Spot ETF builds high walls, and funds no longer seep in arbitrarily.

One of the most profound influencing factors on the structure is the popularity of ETFs. According to research, ETFs lock funds into regulated custodial systems, creating a high degree of stickiness. Profits no longer flow into various meme coins from exchange wallets as they did in 2021, but instead remain within the fund structure, held long-term in a passive allocation manner.

The flow of funds has thus shifted from “waterfall-style infiltration” to “spot jetting,” with only projects that have clear fundamentals or have received endorsement from whales attracting traffic.

Selective Bull Market: The Victory of Elite Assets

Hayes believes that “the alt season has already occurred, it's just that retail investors haven't joined the right teams.” The clearest example is the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid (HYPE): in September this year, the price once surged to 60 USD, driven not by community calls, but by the platform's actual transaction fee income and large OTC stockpiling.

Hayes believes a similar trend is seen in Solana (SOL), which rose from a low of $7 (the 2023 low) to nearly $300, as the market re-evaluates the scarcity of efficient infrastructure in terms of price. The common characteristics of this batch of assets are verifiable cash flow, high technical barriers, or deep liquidity, in stark contrast to purely narrative tokens.

2026 Outlook: Market Logic Enters the Era of Stock Pickers

The crypto-friendly policies of the Trump administration have allowed more traditional investors to come into contact with crypto assets, but the game has significantly upgraded. A Bitwise report indicates that future market trends will be shorter and more intense, focusing on AI, RWA, or key infrastructure areas. Investors waiting for old patterns to repeat face a harsh reality: no one will carry the banner for “junk.”

The era where anything you buy can double is officially over; precise selection of targets is the ticket for entry from 2026 onwards.