Bitcoin Holds Above $92K as ETF Inflows Return Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin steadied above $92,000 on Wednesday after U.S. spot ETFs swung back to net inflows ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy announcement of 2025 — a decision analysts say could determine whether the latest rebound has real momentum. Data from SoSoValue shows roughly $152 million in net ETF inflows on Tuesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC with $199 million. Ethereum funds added another $178 million, while Solana products saw $16.5 million in inflows.

The renewed demand followed a sharp move higher on December 9, when bitcoin briefly climbed to $95,000 before settling back into the $92,000 to $93,000 range. Ether jumped 6% to $3,300 as large wallets accumulated nearly 934,000 ETH over the past three weeks.

Leverage Resets as Whales Accumulate

According to BRN’s Timothy Misir, Tuesday’s inflows marked the return of risk appetite and reflected real demand rather than a short squeeze. Rising spot volumes supported the move, even as bitcoin faded intraday on profit-taking and renewed buying. Misir described the structure as “a reset, not a breakout.”

Onchain signals continue to look constructive. Exchange balances are falling, whales are net buyers, and leverage remains far below summer’s speculative peaks. Coinbase Institutional also noted a healthier market structure, with systemic leverage ratios stabilizing near 4% to 5% of total market cap — roughly half of mid-2025 levels.

Still, retail wallets are selling into strength while large holders accumulate, a dynamic BRN labels “classic late-cycle behavior.”

All Eyes on the Fed as Rate Cut Odds Near 90%

The broader market remains fixated on today’s Federal Open Market Committee decision. Futures markets currently price in an 87% to 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Analysts warn that the cut itself is already priced in; instead, Powell’s guidance on the Fed’s balance sheet and 2026 policy path will determine whether crypto extends its rebound.

QCP Capital reported a “calmer but cautious” Asia session, noting modest improvement in Bitcoin ETF inflows after more than $1.1 billion in outflows through November. Derivatives markets continue to show hesitation, with bitcoin locked in a holding pattern.

K33 Research emphasized unusually low confidence heading into the meeting, citing delayed economic data and mixed macro signals. CME futures activity has dropped sharply, with open-interest volatility falling to one of the lowest readings ever. Historically, that pattern has preceded major price moves.

FOMC Meetings Have Pressured Bitcoin Throughout 2025

Bitcoin has reacted negatively to six of seven FOMC decisions this year. Past meetings have triggered high-low swings between 6% and 29%, with only the May 7 meeting producing a short-term rebound. Analysts cite this pattern as a reason to stay cautious even as ETF demand recovers.

Leverage has already begun to wash out ahead of the announcement. CoinGlass recorded $317 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours, part of a broader deleveraging cycle clearing speculative excess from earlier in the quarter. QCP says the market tone remains cautious, not constructive. Bitcoin is essentially flat year-to-date after peaking above $123,000 in mid-2025. K33 notes a defensive options market, with six-month skews at their highest put-premium levels since 2022.

What Comes Next: ETF Strength vs. Fed Messaging

BRN’s Misir says the market is now trading on two key pillars: how dovish the Fed sounds and whether ETF demand remains strong. A convincingly dovish message could open a path toward the $96,000 to $106,000 range. A cautious tone from Powell could quickly drag bitcoin back into the mid-$80,000s.

QCP also flagged the next major macro catalyst after the Fed meeting — the Bank of Japan’s December 19 decision — where rising JGB yields and currency-carry positioning could deliver another wave of volatility across global markets, including crypto.