XRP News Today: ETF Sees 1 Billion Inflows for 12 Consecutive Days, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Surge to 89%

On December 4, XRP touched the key resistance level of $2.20, with net inflows into spot XRP ETFs reaching $1 billion. US ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a more moderate inflation outlook and alleviating stagflation concerns. The CME Fed Watch tool showed the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 88% to 89%, creating favorable conditions for risk assets like XRP.

ETF Inflows for 12 Consecutive Days, Institutional Demand Booming

(Source: SoSoValue)

On December 2, spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of $67.74 million, lower than the previous trading day’s $89.65 million. Nevertheless, the spot XRP ETF market has recorded net inflows for 12 straight trading days, highlighting strong demand from institutional investors. On December 2, the Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) topped the inflow charts with a net inflow of $21.17 million. Meanwhile, the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) has maintained high inflows since launch, totaling $355.21 million, benefiting from its first-mover advantage.

Crucially, the strong demand for spot ETFs is tipping the supply-demand balance in favor of XRP, supporting a bullish mid- to short-term price outlook. This sustained inflow contrasts sharply with the historical performance of Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin surged 169% on October 6, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $125,761, primarily due to $63.7 billion in net inflows since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs prior to October 6. Since October 7, 2025, ETF issuers have reported $3.5 billion in net outflows, causing Bitcoin’s price to drop 26% from its historical high.

Key XRP ETF Data

Consecutive Inflow Days: 12 trading days

Total Inflows: Nearly $1 billion

December 2 Inflows: $67.74 million

Canary XRP ETF Total: $355.21 million

Grayscale Single-Day Inflow: $21.17 million

The capital flow trends in the spot Bitcoin ETF market highlight the importance of institutional demand for price trends. The most noteworthy news for XRP today is that this ongoing institutional buying is establishing a solid price floor for XRP, highly similar to the early pattern seen with Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

ADP Miss Pushes Fed Rate Cut Expectations to 89%

US economic indicators have eased stagflation risks and boosted market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, compared to an increase of 47,000 in October, supporting a more dovish rate path for the Fed. Meanwhile, the crucial ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose from 52.4 in October to 52.6 in November.

Given that the service sector accounts for about 80% of US GDP, its activity is critical to the US economy. Notably, the price index fell from 70 to 65.4, indicating a more moderate inflation outlook and easing concerns about stagflation. This combination—weak labor market but continued expansion in services and easing inflationary pressure—provides the Fed with a perfect excuse to cut rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed rose from 88.0% on December 2 to 89.0% on December 3. Meanwhile, the probability of a Fed rate cut in March 2026 is 52.9%, up from 45.6% on December 2. This rising expectation of rate cuts is extremely favorable for risk assets like XRP, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cash and bonds, making high-risk, high-return assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive.

Concerns about US stagflation have eased, expectations for a December Fed rate cut continue to rise, and strong demand for spot XRP ETFs all support a more optimistic mid- to short-term outlook. The core of today’s XRP news is the resonant effect of these three bullish factors.

Community Sentiment and Fear Index Signal Bullishness

(Source: Santiment)

Market intelligence platform Santiment released an analysis of current crypto investor sentiment on social media. According to data from X, Reddit, Telegram, and other platforms, the sharp swings from greed to fear perfectly reflect Bitcoin’s price action. Santiment described an inverse relationship between sentiment ratios and Bitcoin price: “Market trends often run counter to public forecasts; when commentary plunges into panic territory, the market tends to precisely predict the coming rebound.”

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently in the fear zone at 26, down from 28 the previous day, supporting further price increases. This fear sentiment is often a contrarian indicator—when the market is in panic, it usually signals a buying opportunity. Social media sentiment has proven to be an important indicator for Bitcoin prices; given its correlation with Bitcoin performance, it is also crucial for the entire market, including XRP.

Technical Focus: $2.20 Support Level Determines Mid-Term Trend

(Source: Trading View)

On December 3, XRP rose 2.03% to close at $2.1973. Despite Wednesday’s gains, XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), further reinforcing its bearish tendency. However, the fundamentals have diverged from technical trends, supporting a bullish outlook. Holding the $2.20 support level will open the door to testing the 50-day moving average at $2.3191. If the price continues to break above the 50-day moving average, then the $2.35 resistance level will become the focus.

Crucially, a break above the 50-day moving average would signal a short-term trend reversal and could support a move up to $2.35. Several key price catalysts could boost demand for XRP: expanding investor participation in spot ETFs, progress on the Capitol Hill market structure bill, and market expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts. Analysts believe these catalysts support a price rise to $2.35 in the short term (1-4 weeks) and to $3 in the medium term (4-8 weeks).

Risk Factors and Downside Scenarios

While today’s XRP news is overall optimistic, there are still potential events that could interrupt the rally. Monetary policy decisions and forward guidance from the Bank of Japan and the Fed may cause market volatility. If MSCI delists Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, it may reduce blue-chip firms’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset. Obstacles for the “Market Structure Bill” in the US Senate and the OCC’s rejection of Bitcoin firms’ applications for US chartered bank licenses could also be negative factors.

These events could push XRP below $2, and it may even break the November low of $1.82 before continuing its move toward $3. However, as long as ETF inflows continue and the Fed maintains a dovish stance, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive.