JPMorgan: MicroStrategy's decline has already reflected the risk of index exclusion, Bitcoin target price is $170,000

JPMorgan recently warned that MicroStrategy ((Strategy)) might be removed from the MSCI and other indices in January 2026, potentially triggering capital outflows of up to nearly $9 billion, which could severely impact its stock valuation. However, in its latest report, JPMorgan stated that the risk of index removal has already been reflected in MSTR’s stock price, although passive outflows could still occur at that time.

(JPMorgan: MSCI index may remove MicroStrategy, potentially triggering nearly $10 billion in outflows)

MSTR’s decline has fully reflected the risk of MSCI removal

JPMorgan previously estimated that if index-tracking funds are required to divest, after the report was released, MSTR’s stock price plunged about 20%, which is currently close to the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings.

But in its latest report, JPMorgan stated:

“If MSCI removes MicroStrategy from the index, the downside for MSTR and bitcoin will be very limited, as the impact of the index removal has already been fully priced in by the market. On the other hand, if MSCI’s decision on January 15 is positive, both MSTR and bitcoin could see a strong rebound, returning to pre-October 10 levels.”

Strategy CEO Phong Le said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that they have already started “communicating” with MSCI.

(MicroStrategy’s bear market survival strategy: from insolvency to restarting the bitcoin flywheel—can Strategy weather the downturn this time?)

JPMorgan maintains bitcoin price target at $170,000

JPMorgan reiterated its volatility-adjusted comparison between bitcoin and gold prices, indicating that within the next 6 to 12 months, bitcoin’s theoretical price will approach $170,000. Although this forecast is speculative, it highlights the potential upside the bank sees before MSCI’s final decision is announced.

A historic wave of liquidations in early October caused bitcoin’s price to plunge from a record high of over $126,000 to around $80,000, with about $19 billion in digital assets evaporating. At press time, bitcoin was trading at approximately $93,000.

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