Has Bitcoin hit the bottom? 806,000 short-term low points flash the "strongest get on board signal".

Bitcoin rebounded from the November low of $80,600, after experiencing significant dumping, temporarily reporting around $87,400 on December 1. According to CoinGlass data, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures turned negative (-0.0033%) for the first time in over a month on November 24, indicating capitulation among traders. Analysts state that the surge in leveraged short positions marks a healthy adjustment rather than the start of a deeper falling trend.

Capitulation bottom pattern at $80,600

(Source: Trading View)

The price of Bitcoin rebounded more than 11.5% to return to the $90,000 range a week after falling to $80,600 (the lowest level since April 2025), with price trends stabilizing. The speed and magnitude of this decline triggered panic in the market, causing many leveraged long positions to be forcibly liquidated, while short-term investors dumped in fear. However, the speed and structure of the recovery led some analysts to believe that the recent wave of dumping eliminated weak investors rather than marking the beginning of a deeper downtrend.

The low point of $80,600 was not formed arbitrarily. From a technical analysis perspective, this price level is precisely the key support area of the previous upward trend and is also a location where a large volume of historical trading is concentrated. When the price reached this level, a typical “Capitulation” bottom characteristic appeared: a surge in trading volume, skyrocketing volatility, and extreme sentiment in the derivatives market.

The formation of a capitulation bottom is usually accompanied by the exit of the last batch of panic sellers. These sellers have been holding on during the price fall, hoping for a rebound, but when the price breaks below the psychological support level, they collectively choose to take losses and exit. This concentrated dumping, although causing a price crash in the short term, also clears the selling pressure in the market, creating conditions for the subsequent rebound. The rapid 11.5% rebound from $80,600 to $90,000 demonstrates that the buying power in the bottom area is very strong.

The historical significance of the funding rate turning negative

(Source: Coinglass)

This includes Kyle Chassé, who pointed out that the positions in derivative products are the most obvious evidence that the downside potential may have been exhausted. According to data from CoinGlass, on November 24, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures turned negative, falling to approximately -0.0033%. This is the first sustained negative value in over a month.

Negative funding means that short sellers need to pay a premium to maintain their short positions, which typically indicates an overly bearish sentiment. Historically, this situation often occurs near local bottoms, when panic reaches its peak, and sellers rush in at the last moment. Chassé describes this situation straightforwardly: traders panic, short the lows, essentially paying stronger market participants to absorb their positions.

Three Major Implications of a Negative Funding Rate

Sentiment Indicator Reversal: Negative funding rates indicate that the market is overly pessimistic, and short positions have reached extreme levels, often signaling that a reversal is imminent.

Contrarian Trading Opportunity: When retail investors panic and go short, institutions and whales usually accumulate positions, and negative funding rates provide a clear contrarian signal.

Leverage Liquidation Signal: Negative funding rate indicates that excessive short positions leverage is being cleaned up, making the market structure healthier.

Just a few days later, the funding rate fell back to about 0.0023%, indicating that excessive leverage has been released, while prices remain high. For many professionals, the normalization of the rebound is more important than the rebound itself. When derivative positions remain neutral rather than overly optimistic, market trends tend to be most effective. In this sense, the “bubble” has been cleared.

The adjustment of the funding structure indicates that the recent rebound is not entirely driven by short positions squeezing, but rather by the actual rebalancing of risks. Sellers are no longer aggressive, and buyers are also not using leverage to chase prices up and down. This neutral market structure is an ideal starting point for a healthy upward trend. In the multiple rebounds of 2024, those increases accompanied by a rapid return to a positive funding rate are often short-lived, as they are driven by leverage rather than real demand. In contrast, the current rebound continues with a moderate funding rate, showing stronger sustainability.

Technical confirmation of an ascending consolidation structure

(Source: Trading View)

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin has begun to stabilize above its 20-4 hour exponential moving average (20-4 hour EMA, represented by a green wave) and has entered an upward consolidation mode. This technical structure is common in Bitcoin's historical bull markets and typically signifies the end of a correction and the beginning of a new upward movement.

The 20-4 hour EMA is a dynamic support indicator that smooths out short-term price fluctuations and reflects the medium to short-term trends of the market. When the price stabilizes above this moving average, it indicates that the buying power has reasserted control over the market. Currently, Bitcoin has not only stabilized above this moving average but has also formed an ascending channel above it, with each pullback finding support at higher low points.

The momentum indicators (including the Relative Strength Index RSI) have rebounded from oversold levels, but have not reached extreme values, indicating that the market is recovering rather than weakening. The RSI is currently in the 50-60 range, which is an ideal initial stage for upward movement. If the RSI has already surged above 70, it would instead raise concerns about overbought conditions. The current moderate momentum indicates that there is still room for further upward movement.

Volume surged near the low point of $80,600, a pattern typically associated with capitulation rather than a continuation of the trend. A high-volume bottom is a reliable signal for a bottom formation, as it represents a significant exchange of chips at low levels. Those weak holders who sold in panic transferred their chips to strong buyers willing to buy at lower levels.

The uptrend path of 92,600 to 100,000 USD

As of November 30, Bitcoin is targeting a rebound towards $92,600. This price level is the upper edge of the previous consolidation area and also serves as a short-term resistance level. If this resistance level is broken, the price may further rise to around $96,660 near the 200-4 hour moving average (blue wave line), and there is a possibility of forming a shadow pattern, ultimately reaching the $99,000-$100,000 area.

Three Key Thresholds in the Bitcoin Ascension Path

First Threshold: $92,600 - Upper boundary of the previous consolidation area, breaking through confirms the establishment of a short-term upward trend.

Second Threshold: $96,660 - The 200-4 Hour EMA position, a key watershed for the medium-term trend.

Third Threshold: 99,000-100,000 USD - Psychological barrier and previous high area, a breakthrough will open up new upward space.

A breakout at $92,600 requires volume support. If the volume increases during the breakout, it will confirm sufficient buying strength. Conversely, if the breakout occurs with declining volume, it may be a false breakout, and the price will quickly retreat. The 200-4 hour moving average at $96,660 is a more significant technical level, as it represents the trend of a longer time period. Only by stabilizing at this position can Bitcoin truly confirm a medium-term upward trend.

The $99,000-100,000 area is not only a psychological barrier but also a dense zone of previous highs. There may be a significant amount of profit-taking in this area, leading to some selling pressure as the price approaches. However, if Bitcoin can break through $100,000 with strong momentum, it will create a “new high” effect, attracting more off-market funds to enter and initiating a new round of price discovery.